Situation Report by PALM Strategic 

The Israeli occupation forces and the extremist colonial settler gangs continue their attempts to provoke the Palestinian citizens in Al-Quds and Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, especially with the beginning of the holy months of Ramadan. This year, Ramadan, the spiritual month for the Muslims, intersects with several Jewish holidays, headed by the Passover, during which the colonial settlers carry out several raids and attacks against the Palestinian citizens with the help of the occupation forces to implement Talmudic rituals, and violate the sanctity of the Islamic holy places and neighborhoods in Al-Quds.

The confrontations between the Israeli occupation forces and the colonial settlers on one side, and the Jerusalemite Palestinians on the other side started early in the first days of Ramadan. The Israeli occupation escalated its repressive procedures through establishing a point for the central operations near Bab Al-Amoud, and erecting an iron fence around Bab Al-Amoud to limit the prayers' movement, prevent the Palestinians from reaching the area, and prevent the ambulance staff from being in it. Moreover, the occupation leaders, starting from Itmar Ben Gvir and ending with the Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, compete to desecrate Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa through breaking into its yards

The Israeli occupation also preceded Ramadan by arresting more than 163 Jerusalemites, and issuing 27 deportation decisions last March. It also started the holy month with attacking the prayers and the Jerusalemites heading to Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa; causing 20 citizens injured and 10 others arrested. Moreover, the violent Israeli practices affected a number of families who went to hospitals to visit their injured sons.

Regarding the efforts of the extremist Zionist religious groups, dozens of colonial settlers broke into the yards of Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, while the leaders of those groups prepare for a series of raids and attacks against Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa during the Passover, which marks the 15^th to 21^st of Ramadan. The preparations included the performance of provocative rounds and Talmudic rituals by several students and religious institutes, and the confirmation of the extremists' leaders on making ritual slaughter in the yards of Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa during the upcoming Passover.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene

• The provocations of Zionist settlers and the actions of the occupation forces in the Holy City, in parallel with the great tension that is engulfing the Jerusalemites, constitute a fertile ground for the explosion of conditions and the intensification of confrontations and clashes in Al-Quds.
• This year, Ramadan coincides with the Jewish Passover, which often marks an increase in the attacks of settlers and extremist religious groups backed by the occupation police and political leaders.
• Since the beginning of this month, the Israeli violations have escalated in such a way that prepares for more intense and widespread attacks during the Jewish holidays, and raises confrontations and frictions among Jerusalemites on the one hand, and settlers and the occupation police on the other.
• The current events in Al-Quds and the sharp escalation in the rates of friction and engagement between the Jerusalemites and the occupation forces are a repeated version of the events' beginnings of the past year. They transformed into a military operation and a major confrontation that has resonated in the Gaza Strip in the so-called 'Al-Quds Sword' battle.
• The occupation government recognizes the magnitude of the challenge that may arise from the escalation of events in Al-Quds. So, the government has sought from an early period and through shuttle tours involving the territorial States, the Palestinian Authority, the United States and normalization States to agree on a common strategy to curb events from the explosion.

Possible Scenarios: based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected:

1. The situations might gradually deteriorate and enter a round of conflict whose events are confined to Al-Quds and West Bank, and the extent of individual operations targeting the Israeli occupation would increase as well. This scenario is supported by the ongoing tension in both Al-Quds and the West Bank, and Gaza's unhurry to join the confrontation and give the West Bank, Al-Quds and the occupied territories a bigger chance to revolt. 
2. The situations might deteriorate to enter a big military operation that includes Gaza. What supports this scenario is the inability to contain Al-Quds' situations, the continuation of the attacks of the colonial settlers and occupation forces against the Al-Quds' families in a way that might lead to the continuation of the occupation's violations; leading the resistance to respond. As a result, the situations might escalate, reaching a wide confrontation with a large-scale fighting; reaching Gaza.

In general, all scenarios are possible and the possibility to reach them is connected to the extent of the Israeli attacks and how the situations might escalate. However, their extensions will remain connected to the upcoming events.