Egyptian, Jordanian, UAE Summit: Efforts to Restore Calm in Al-Quds

Apr 27, 2022 10:47 am

Situation Report by PALM Strategic

Jordan's king Abdullah met on Sunday with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and United Arab Emirates Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Zayed in a summit held in Al-Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo. The summit in its final statement addressed the recent regional developments, the mutual interests of those countries, and particularly the Palestinian cause and tensions in Al-Quds.

The summit's final statement confirmed the importance of restoring calm in the holy city and the Palestinian lands. It also emphasized the Jordanian guardianship of the Islamic holy places in Al-Quds, and urged the Israeli occupation to end its escalating measures and settler attacks against the Palestinian citizens. Moreover, the statement condemned the Israeli violations and restrictions imposed on the Christians in the Easter and Holy Saturday, and refused the Israeli efforts to divide Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa spatially and temporally.

Within the same context, the ministers of the Foreign Ministry of Arabs held last week an urgent meeting in Amman. The meeting, which did not last for more than an hour and a half, stressed on restoring calm in Al-Quds and confirmed Jordan's guardianship of Al-Quds.

In parallel with the Arab efforts, the past days witnessed several diplomatic moves, most importantly the phone call between Jordan's king and US President Joe Biden to discuss the recent developments, and the two calls between US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in order to stop escalation and restore calm in Al-Quds. In addition, the phone call between UAE Crown Prince and Israeli Foreign Minister last Thursday to calm tensions and stop clashes.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

  • The Israeli occupation and extremist settlers continue their ongoing attacks against the Palestinians in West Bank and Al-Quds during the holy month of Ramadan, which coincides with Jewish holidays. This forms an opportunity to maintain tension and escalation in the region.
  • The current situations in Al-Quds cast a shadow on the regional and international efforts, and the international actors realize that the situations might escalate and deteriorate to the extent of explosion. This leads to a wide-scale international movement to prevent the events from reaching a critical point.
  • The Arab and diplomatic efforts exerted by Egypt, Jordan and the UAE are activated by an American supervision and coordination with the Israeli occupation to hold back the revolt in Al-Quds and Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa.
  • The international and regional diplomatic efforts move in accordance with those countries' strategic interests to maintain calm in the Middle East, consolidate the normalizing efforts between the Arab countries and the occupation, and prevent any opportunity of escalation.
  • The Jordanian Kingdom exerts efforts to prevent the escalation of situation through the existence of the Jordanian Awqaf commission in Al-Quds. Egypt also exerts efforts to press on the Palestinian forces and factions in Gaza not to enter a confrontation with the occupation.

Situation Report: based on the aforementioned reading of the scene, following is the expected scenarios:

  1. The international and regional efforts might lead to the organization of their security efforts with the actors in the region to contain escalations, and the coordination of roles with the occupation, the Palestinian Authority, Egypt and Jordan to prevent the deterioration of events to a wide confrontation. This is what was partially achieved during the past period. What supports this scenario is the restrained and controlled escalation in Al-Quds, West Bank and Gaza.
  2. The diplomatic efforts might fail to contain escalation, as the situations might deteriorate in a way that leads to a big, unrestrained confrontation, affecting the relative current calm. This scenario is supported by the continuation of confrontations and the increase of the number of worshippers in Al-Aqsa in the last days of Ramadan, giving the space for more uncontrolled confrontations.

In general, all scenarios are present; with giving preference for the first scenario, as the season of the Jewish holidays ended last week. Thus, this supports the scenario that indicates the possibility to restore calm in Al-Quds.