Situation Report by PALM Strategic
The Israeli government, headed by Right-wing Naftali Bennett, suffers from successive cracks and turns. Even before recovering from the threats of Ghaidaa Zoubi, Meretz member in the Israeli Knesset, to resign from the coalition, it trembled by two resignations. The first was of the Minister of Religious Services in the Israeli occupation government Matan Kahana offered his resignation, while the second was of Bennett's Political Advisor Shemret Me'er. That, of course, indicates the current state of disintegration the occupation experiences nowadays.
It has also suffered from Mansour Abbas' United Arab List's freezing of its activities in the coalition, due to disputes on the government's attitudes and racism against the Arab community. The circle of cracks then was completed by the resignation of Bennett office's director Tal Gan Tsfi.
In parallel with those cracks, Bennett's government is still on date with a group of other turns that might cause further imbalances in the infrastructure of the governmental coalition. The first feature of the government's cracks started to appear following suggestions of the coalition parties to cancel the nationalism law adopted by Bennett and his extreme party, the current dispute resulted from Israeli Defense Minister's decision to evacuate Humosh outpost; which received a serious opposition from Bennett's government, and the threat of the Knesset's Minister of Economy Committee Mikhael Biton to stop voting for the coalition, until an agreement regarding the reforms in public transport prices is reached.
Analysis and Insight of the Scene:
• Bennett's weak government continues to suffer due to the political and ideological difference between its components from the Far Right to the Far Left, lending it a state of weakness and instability.
• Zoubi's resignation, Raem Party's support for the coalition, and the successive resignations in the office of PM Bennett formed a political shakeup to the government and disclosed its weakness.
• The racist nationalism law is a source of tension and disturbance inside the Israeli government; thus, the left and central forces seriously seek to edit it in a way that includes equality for all the Israelis.
• PM Naftali Bennett continues to exert efforts to strengthen the coalition and lend it a state of balance in order to restore stability and give it a chance to continue.
Possible Scenarios: Based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected:
1. Naftali Bennett and the governmental coalition's parties might continue to guarantee the continuation of the current government despite all the serious differences and challenges between its components to maintain a state of balance between the right-wing visions and different-oriented coalition, and to keep this state for the longest phase without a clear recognition of the collapse of the government or the coalition.
2. The inner and outer pressures exerted on the government might increase in a way that leads to its collapse, and calls for the 5th elections to return back t a new state of political emptiness.
In general, all scenarios are present with a preference for the 1st scenario that might look more logical, due to the political, field and security changes suffered by the government, and the exerted pressures to reach stability and give it a bigger chance to continue and not give up for the political emptiness or Netanyahu's return to rein.