Mohammed Awni Abu Oun                                                                                                                                                                                                        

The Russia-Ukraine war re-brought the race of influence and domination amongst the Great Powers to the surface again, and the climate of the cold war between the eastern camp -led by the Soviet Union representing socialism- and the western camp -led by the United States representing capitalism- leaked out to the world. Despite the two camps' current tendency towards capitalism, they maintained their expansionist ambitions and control of domination using both hard power and soft power.

The recent events that appear on the global arena constitute a return of the state of lineup behind the poles of the Great Powers and their race to guarantee the largest number of countries under their robe. The current Russian movement is a good example of this, as after its absorption of the shock of the US-European sanctions resulting from its war on Ukraine, Russia sought to expand the circle of the allied nations, especially the conflicts inside the American ally and the national historically belonging to it.

Russia today has the force elements that contribute in attracting and building alliances, starting with its power and military systems -especially at the level of the fighter aircraft and air defense systems- reaching its power in the different fields of power. It, lately, directly or through its alliances, could empower its relations and expand it. The UAE-Iran convergence evidently presents this point along with the coordination and alignment shown by the Saudi Arabia with Russia in the field of energy production.

In case Russia enjoyed an evolving relationship with these countries, it would thus expand its historical alliance that includes Iraq, Syria and Lebanon -affected by Hezbollah, Libya (whose two parties' alliances return to Russia either by Haftar's channels or Tripoli government through Turkey), and Houthi in Yemen. It is also qualified to exploit the general friction in the Gulf stance on the USA, and to get involved in the political systems there through carrot and stick with pressure from the pro-Iran Shiite community.

Regarding the other Arab countries, they are either in a complete state of loyalty with the American ally, or they don't have a relative weight that might influence its presence or absence in the political map in the Arab region.

Observing the American and Russian poles, the importance and power of China should not be undermined as it is supposed to constitute the third pole in the global policy amid the global economic expansion. The Chinese industries competitively invade the international markets, to develop its military capabilities and have the largest human wealth over the planet, thus it has become a primary element to compete on domination and influence.

The current coalitions observe the Arab region as a strategic treasure for its geographic, historic, political and economic dimensions. Using direct or indirect power to impose control over the area is a motivating element for those powers as they don't see any obstacles to exchange control over the Arab region, especially amid the political vulnerability that prevails over those countries and the absence of effective leadership to make their policies more independent and powerful.

In light of this state of political regression, it is expected that a state of limbo might continue in the Arab region amongst coalitions. Yet, the most important question is that where the compass of the upcoming coalitions might head to? What answers this question is the ability of the great poles to devote those countries' loyalties to their expansionist projects.

Perhaps, the USA's high concentration on confronting China and Russia and less interest in the Arab region have allowed those countries to slightly break free from commitment towards the American pole. If breaking away from the western domination was developed, the Arab region can be a difficult number in the global equation and will possibly become the fourth pole that draws the global policy in case it well drew its paths. This requires leading, economic and political preparation to play this strategic, fateful role.