The Palestinian factions, most importantly Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, announced to send a delegation of their leaders to Algeria, in response to an invitation sent by Algeria President Abdelmadjid Tabboune to discuss the issue of the Palestinian reconciliation. The Algerian presidency started such efforts through individual meetings that have started since the beginning of the current year with the Palestinian factions in an attempt to end the conflict, restore the national unity and reunite the system and the Palestinian political representation in a democratic manner through elections.
Last July, Algeria could hold a mutual meeting between Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Head of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh on the 60th anniversary of its independence. Algeria considered this meeting as positive, leading it to host a conference preceding the Arab Summit.
These Algerian efforts complement the long series of former meetings and attempts to achieve the Palestinian reconciliation. Several attempts by Egypt, Russia, Turkey, Qatar and Lebanon preceded this Algerian invitation; however, none of such meetings achieved practical results that would end the division or limit it effectively.
The Palestinian factions' response to this meeting held in Algeria is a new attempt to create a real breakthrough in the efforts of unity and Palestinian reconciliation, and an appreciation of the role play by the Algerian presidency to arrange the Palestinian arena before the Arab summit -supposed to be held in Algerian next November.
Insight of the Scene:
⦁ The recent meeting as well as the next meeting supposed to be held in Algeria is a new phase to end the division and rebuild the Palestinian political regime in order to comprehend all Palestinians and factions.
⦁ The next meeting -supposed to be held in Algeria- is an extension of Algeria's preparations to sponsor the Palestinian reconciliation. Also, such efforts come within the context of competition to influence the region, especially as Algeria is one of the supporters of the Palestinian Authority.
⦁ There is a clear state of Egyptian and Arab vulnerability in supporting the efforts of the Palestinian reconciliation in light of the long series of breakthrough that effected the efforts made to end the division.
⦁ Clearly, there is frustration at the level of factions and the Palestinian people due to the repeated reconciliation efforts that have not led to a positive outcome, as expressed by the views of a large number of analysts and politicians, to evoke past experiences that have not been successful.
Possible Scenarios: based on the analysis and reading of the scene, following is expected:
1. Palestinian efforts might succeed in reaching a consensual formula that will end the division and restore Palestinian unity, especially in light of the Palestinians' sense of sensitivity to the stage and the difficulty of conspiracy on the Palestinian issue.
2. Exerted efforts might be subject to regional, Arab and international pressure, especially in light of the dissolution of normalization of relations with the occupation, and the failure to reach an agreement that brings together fragmentation and strengthens Palestinian vulnerability.
3. Breakthroughs and relative successes might be achieved without reaching full consensus on all procedures and arrangements, and that efforts might coincide with difficult application on the ground, occupation practices and regional and international efforts to scuttle them.
Generally, all scenarios remain present with the relative advantage of the third scenario, where a theoretical consensus is expected to be achieved between the representatives of the Palestinian factions and forces, but this consensus will be met with external and internal pressures, led by the Israeli occupation to impede implementation.