An Aggression in the Horizon

Dec 10, 2020 08:28 am

A few days from now the Palestinian people will commemorate the first aggression on the Gaza Strip (2008-2009) when the Israeli warplanes targeted all Hamas-controlled security and military locations in an attempt to terminate Hamas’ military assets and topple its rule in the Gaza Strip. 

Insight of the Situation

Benny Gantz, the Israeli Minister of War and Alternate PM, asked his rival Benjamin Netanyahu to approve the government’s budget before the beginning of this December. Gantz is supposed to become prime minister on November 17, 2021. However, Netanyahu is stalling and rejecting such rotation in hope for extending his own term; which is unlikely to happen. Currently, dissolving the Knesset and the call for a forth election are open for a vote; which means entering a fourth election in two years only hence weakening the political system.

Netanyahu is working at a fast pace in order to slow down the Iranian nuclear project. He successfully assassinated the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrzadeh before Joe Biden takes his position as president of the USA. The latter had mentioned in his electoral campaign resuming the Iranian nuclear agreement; meaning, he would have refused giving legal cover to the assassination as president.

Based on the above, carrying out a military operation against the southern front is very suitable to Netanyahu for several reasons, including:

  1. The ending of the occupation’s civil year – a period of time during which all diplomatic international activities are frozen in preparation for the new year. The occupation’s military activity enjoys temporary freedom.
  2. The ending of Donlad Trump’s term. Trump is packing to leave the White House as the democrat Joe Biden steps in.

Possible Scenarios

  • The Israeli occupation strikes the resistance’ assets in the Gaza Strip, killing a lot of people. The resistance responds with fierce in order to maintain the equation that says ‘bombing military locations will be met with bombing’; the escalation could last for a week.
  • The Mossad executes an assassination operation of one of the resistance military leaders abroad, also resulting in the resistance’ fierce response.
  • The Arab normalization with the occupation continues smoothly, Biden becomes president and no strike is made against the Gaza Strip.

The first scenario is more likely to realize. Executing a military operation will enable Netanyahu to escape the corruption and bribery charges, and will unite the internal front through declaring a state of emergency. This will result in him keeping his position as prime minister.

 

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