The American Administration has announced its plan to terminate the Palestinian cause through what is called ‘the Deal of the Century’. The Deal gives the occupation Al-Quds as its capital, makes the settlements in the West Bank under its authority, and gets Palestinians to recognize the occupation as a Jewish State. As for the Palestinians, they get to have an unarmed country, so the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and part of Sinai turn into a group of cantons.
Palestinians’ Reactions
The PLO announced its rejection of the Deal, and held a meeting with the other factions (including Hamas and Jihad) yesterday, Tuesday, January 28, 2020. President Abbas announced that he would face such plan through issuing several resolutions. The factions, too, announced their intentions to take actions to prevent its implementation. Regarding the Palestinians themselves, they publicly denounced such Israeli-American plan.
Possible Scenarios
- Denunciation of Oslo Accords
The PLO may withdraw from its agreements with the occupation and its recognition of the occupation, and give the resistance more freedom in the occupied West Bank. This scenario may sound unrealistic because of the PLO’s role in serving and protecting the occupation’s interests. It can be noted that during the Tuesday meeting with the factions, the PLO did not announce, for example, the end of the security coordination with the occupation.
In order to truly hinder the implementation of the American plan, the PLO needs complete reformation and restructuring in its position on its political opponents. The President did not announce releasing the Palestinians detained in its prisons, giving people more freedom, or stopping the sanctions imposed on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Instead, the President reemphasized going further with negotiations. It is unlikely for the PLO to make any move and resist the Israeli-American Plan as the President’s speech could be for the camera only.
- Popular Intifada in the West Bank
The people of the Gaza Strip and, mostly, the West Bank could trigger clashes with the occupation in areas where there is direct contact. Considering the rage of the Palestinians, they may hold demonstrations or lead clashes that would develop to military operations against the settlers and soldiers. This is possible; nevertheless, the constraints imposed in the West Bank (such as chasing the resistance fighters) would make it difficult to happen.
The popular intifada could happen, but not to an influential level. The protesters will probably just use primitive weapons (like rocks, Molotov, or knives). Again, it is not impossible for a popular intifada to develop into military action. Still, this entirely depends on the unity of the Palestinian powers (Hamas, Jihad and Fatah and the Popular Front) and the weakening of the PLO in the occupied West Bank.
- War
In this case, the spark of war will be triggered from Gaza. Some factions in Gaza, mostly Hamas, would gradually escalate with the occupation until it reaches a war in order to prevent the Israeli-American plan from realizing.
Despite the factions’ rejection of the Deal, for them to start a destructive war is unlikely unless they are forced to (if the Palestinians are displaced to Sinai, for instance). Therefore, it is not on Hamas’ agenda to go into war right now since it has been attempting several things (such as Haniya’s tour) to lift the siege.
The most expected scenario is the Palestinian factions, Hamas in the lead, attempt to make the response to the Deal a popular one through protests, clashes and confrontations. It may reactivate the March of Return in the Gaza Strip and trigger confrontations in the West Bank. In addition, Hamas may reactivate the Palestinian diplomacy, mobilize international support from Malaysia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and other supporting countries towards ending this Deal and preventing it from actually happening. The action will probably remain popular, and will not develop into anything military.