The Egyptian Intelligence Service had serious guarantees and undertakings to support the move towards different issues, mainly the prisoner exchange deal, during the last visit of Hamas' leaders to Cairo.

Recently, Channel 31 quoted the response of Alon Schuster, the deputy minister of defense, about the possibility of sealing a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas. "We are nearing something; I hope the lights we see are the end of the tunnel,” Schuster said to Channel 13 news.

Phases of the Deal:

There is not a final agreement regarding the exchange deal, yet it can be stated that the deal, according to media outlets, can take place in two phases:

First: the release of Avraham Mengistu and Hisham Al-Sayed, and the provision of information about Hadar Golden and Oron Shaul, who were captivated in 2014 war, in exchange for the release of about 300 female and male prisoners; children and women, and the ex-prisoners of the Shalit Deal -Wafaa Al-Ahrar Deal- who were re-arrested after their release. 

Second: the release of the soldiers Golden and Oron in exchange for the release of 800 prisoners, including major national leaders.

Due to the available information, Hamas and the Israeli occupation do not oppose the implementation of the first phase of the deal. Yet, the occupation fears the second phase as it is represented in the repetition of the release of the Palestinian Prisoner Movement's leaders, believing that they might endanger its entity. Thus, the release of the military and political leaders means:

• Empowering the Palestinian resistance by providing it with mentalities that believe in ending the Israeli occupation, have the power to recruit new resistance fighters, and can implement transformative operations like those of the commanders Abdullah Al-Barghouti and Hassan Salama.
• Reviving the Palestinian factions. For example, the release of political leaders such as Ahmed Saadat and Marwan Al-Barghouti indicate a change in the mindset of Fateh towards the resistance.

Scenarios of the Deal's Success:

The Israeli occupation's government, led by PM Neftali Bennett, continues to postpone and manipulate as its last attempts to extort was when it connected the release of the Israeli captives with the ending of the blockade and the start of Gaza's reconstruction. Nonetheless, after a series of failed pressures, it realized Hamas' insistence to end several issues for its sake and the sake of the Palestinian people after the big sacrifices it provided with its people. Mainly, the exchange deal, blockade, and reconstruction of the city.

Accordingly, it is expected that the exchange deal might succeed in two cases:

• Steering the Israeli people to form pressure on the Israeli government. This is connected to the appearance of any information about the Israeli soldiers captivated by Hamas. Thus, this might be undertaken within the context of the exchange deal or with personal efforts by Hamas to move this issue.   
• The collapse of the Israeli government and its transformation to a caretaker government. Even though it might be accountable by the Knesset, it will not continue to reject the deal, especially after its collapse. Neftali's government is not the first to seal such a deal; it is proceeded by Netanyahu's.

The second scenario is apparently rooted amid the current government's weakness and the diversity of the international conflicts in the Israeli occupation entity.