Hatem Abu Zaida

Introduction

The new U.S administration has begun to reconsider its foreign policy, focusing on effective mechanisms to overcome the shortcomings in facing the transformations created by various power practices. The United States has believed, for decades, that the Middle East is the scene of strategic confrontation between the wrestler Regional and International forces; although, a new opinion has begun to form to reduce the Middle East's importance, because of the changing priorities of the U.S national security's threats and resources.

In this context, two questions arise:

1. What's new about the American strategy in the Arab region and the Middle East?

2. What are the options of the Palestinian national factions in light of the emerging American strategy?

First: International Interactions and Conflicts in the Region

If we look at the international and regional interactions and conflicts, where the United States is at the center, we can note the following:

1. China's challenge to the United States of America: China could be the most powerful military force in Asia. It focuses its defense efforts, basically, on its borders and territorial waters; shifting the balance of military power in its favor, particularly in the Taiwan Strait region. The former US Deputy Secretary of Defense, Robert Work, admitted that among18 simulation models conducted by Pentagon for military exercises between China and the United States in Taiwan, the outcome has always been in China's favor. Moreover, China's economic situation gives it a competitive advantage against the United States, making it able to fund defense and intelligence budgets in a way that may be larger than what the United States allocates. China has also increased its economic engagement with the other countries in the region and has entered the geopolitical race with the United States to develop the fifth and sixth generations in the field of communication technology, as well as the alliances it seeks to build, such as: Signing the partnership agreement with Iran.
2. Militarization of the Russian Role and Sovereignty of Europe: Russia continues to strengthen its military involvement in the region. During 2020, the Russian army increased its military presence in Syria, and became the most important and influential player in it, in addition to expanding in Libya through private military companies. Moscow has also sought to strengthen its military cooperation with Sudan. The European Union continues its endeavors to achieve "strategic sovereignty" in order to be able to defend its interests independently from the American umbrella, especially in light of Washington's endeavor to reduce its military deployment in some areas of vital importance to the Union European.
3. Accelerated Interactions in the Arab Region and Middle East: The events that swept the Middle East over the past decade have led to the emergence of sings indicating changes in the balance of power at the regional level, in light of the appearance of regional and international actors (Russia, China, Iran, Turkey), and growing convergence between them. Moreover, the region is under the influence of two opposite sides; the first side led by the United States, and includes (Israel, Egypt, UA, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Bahrain), and the second side represented by the forces of resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Palestinian national factions, the Houthis), as well as (Russia and Turkey), which are determined to ensure control and influence and secure their interests, without being sharply antagonizing with one of the two sides.
4. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: The U.S administration has avoided engaging in the conflict round which broke out in May 2021 between the Palestinians and Israelis. This round was represented as a test for the foreign policy of the U.S administration in the Middle East, as it highlighted the insistence of the United States on relying on two regions partners (Egypt, Qatar) to reach a cease-fire.
   With regard to Israel, it has seen more involvement in regional interactions following progress in its relations with Arab countries, efforts to participate in regional security arrangements, formulation of joint measures to confront Iran’s threats, and an escalation of interests in economic cooperation. On the other hand, the interior scene in Israel is governed by turmoil as a result of lack of stability among parties and governments. This is related to the expansion of the map of threats to Israeli security.
5. The escalation of Cyberattacks: The cyberattacks are expected to increase in the coming years in quantitative as well as qualitative terms, which is due to the increasing dependence on the Internet. This has led to give the information hackers an opportunity to direct complex attacks, such as malicious ransom attacks, the use of the internet devices to launch cyber-attacks, the increasing severity of cloud computing attacks, and finally, the crisis that Facebook has experienced.

Second: The American Strategy in the Region in the Next Stage

The changes and developments, referred to above, have driven the U.S strategic options ranging between the power approach and hegemony to protect the interests as important objectives of the American foreign policy, and the policies of regression and the desire to reduce its leadership role in the world that is a heavy burden on its shoulder. this seems so clear in attempting to absorb tensions and conflicts in the Middle East, and heading, instead, towards containing and circling Russia and China, as in the submarine deal with Australia. In the same context, to give space to the language of political and media discourse for the use of sayings and slogans of democracy, human rights, soft power, and strengthening diplomatic tools. In light of this, the US strategy in the region can be drawn up through the following points:

1. Israel still represents the center of attention for American policy in the region, and its relationship with the various parties is affected by the relationship of those parties to Israel.

2. The United States still attaches importance to preserving its influence in the region, and the region will stay a strategic scope for US national security in a long-term perspective. As there are essential interests that require its continued existence in the region, such as: combating terrorism, preventing the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and facilitating oil exports. The U.S is aware that failure to control and containing events in the region could damage their vital interests.

3. All that the US states can make of a change in their policies and strategies in the region is to reformulate their relations and change their tools; using diplomacy and soft power instead of hard power. It is heading towards dealing with the region within three phases:

1. Reconfigure the conditions of the region According to the American and Israeli interests.
2. Delegating some regional powers to a number of files in order to ensure alleviating the burdens on the American administration
3. Ending conflicts by negotiation and political agreements.
4. Ensuring Security in the region through the sponsorship and supervision of conventions supervising it, and containing the various parties.

Third: Options of the Palestinian National Factions in the Light of the American Strategy

The choices of the Palestinian national factions in dealing with the American strategy in the region range between two options:

First choice: The disregard of the Palestinian factions for the American strategy that seeks to control the region and alleviate the clashes and conflicts it is witnessing, and give priority to diplomatic work as an alternative to armed and rough clashes. Consequently, the practice of any behavior by the Palestinian factions that would contradict the American strategy, especially with regard to the heating up of the Palestinian scene and the armed confrontation with the occupation. In particular, the confrontations that affect the Israeli depth that could lead to regional turmoil and instability, which could provoke the United States.

Second choice: The response of the Palestinian national factions to the American strategy for the region, and the concern to exercise restraint as far as possible, so that the region does not deviate into an armed conflict with Israel, which leads to heating and tension in the region. This the most likely option that the Palestinian factions can exploit to achieve their conditions.

Conclusion:

The American strategy in the region combines between power and domination approach to protect its interests, and between the desire in a controlling any tensions or disturbances, preferring the policy of containment and soft power tools such as diplomacy and negotiations over others. The U.S strategy will exert pressure on the various parties to reach consensus (no victors and no losers) to ensure the achievement of its strategy, in an attempt to devote to the Chinese challenge and the internal American affairs. On the other side, the Palestinian national factions face two opposing options for dealing with this strategy: responding to it, or ignoring it. Most likely, it will respond to it and try to invest it in order to achieve their conditions in the conflict with Israel.