Situation Report by PALM Strategic

Minister of Internal Security Omer Barlev and Police Commissioner Yaakov Shabtai approved the Flag March to be held on Jerusalem Day, May 29; the day in which the Israelis celebrate the occupation of Al-Quds. The march is allowed to go through Bab Al-Amoud "Damascus Gate" and the Islamic neighborhood in the Old City, until Al-Buraq Wall, amid calls from Lehava organization to storm Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, demolish the Dome of the Rock and build the Alleged Temple Mount. 

Those developments received a huge Palestinian dissatisfaction, as the Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs considered the occupation's decision as aggressive and provocative, as well as an integral part of the occupation's open war against Al-Quds, its citizens and holy places. It also called on the international community and the United States of America to step in and protect Al-Quds and the Jerusalemites. On the other side, it condemned Jordan, the trustee of Al-Quds, in light of its Foreign Ministry's recent statement, describing it as "illegal and is a blatant violation of the resolutions of international legitimacy to maintain the current situation in the holy city."

Within the same context, the Palestinian resistance factions warned of the Flag March in Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, announced on behalf of their leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Ziad Al-Nakhala that all 'capabilities' will be used to confront the occupation. The Joint Chamber of Resistance factions stated that it will not allow to break the rules of engagement and that any Israeli escalation in the Al-Quds must be countered. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene

⦁  Far-right Zionist groups insist on continuing to increase their aggressive efforts towards the Jerusalemites and Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, and use every possible occasion to carry out these activities.
⦁ The Palestinian Resistance seeks to preserve its gains, consolidate its positions and rules of engagement, and brandish escalation and military operations if the occupation returns to violate these rules and attack Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa.
⦁ The Israeli military and police forces are increasingly motivated to try to encircle right-wing activities and maintain a balanced form and course of march that satisfies settler groups and does not provoke Palestinian resistance.
⦁ The occupation government is aware of the threat of the Palestinian resistance and its various axes. It therefore continues its military maneuvers and preparations that mimic attacks on several fronts.
⦁ The occupation government headed by Naftali Bennett continues to suffer from fractures and continuing shocks in its structure and coalition, between the withdrawal of MK Ghida Zoobi from the coalition and her recent return, to the resignation of both the director of Bennett's office, Tal Gan Zvi, and his political adviser, Shimrit Meir.

ssible Scenarios: Based on the aforementioned analysis and reading of the scene, it is expected that:

⦁ The Israeli occupation government might continue to run the scene in a balanced way between satisfying the colonial settlers mentally and taking the Palestinian resistance's threats seriously. This scenario is supported by the state of fragmentation among all the Israeli political, social, military and security components, and their need for a relative stability that enables them to continue. 

⦁ The pace of Israeli attacks on Al-Quds and Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa might increase and the settlers might be allowed to desecrate the holy places, provoking the Palestinians' feelings and leading the situations to a wide confrontation. 

In general, all scenarios are present, with a considerable preference for the first scenario in accordance with the field data and the occupation's former behavior during the Easter and Israel's Independence Day, in parallel with Israel's fragmentated and weak situation.