What after Bennett Government's Collapse?

Jun 22, 2022 01:34 pm

Situation Report by PALM Strategic
The Israeli occupation government announced Monday to resolve itself after the governmental coalition had failed to maintain its majority in the Knesset. This decision came after Nir Orbakh, the Knesset member in Yamina Party, approved his withdrawal from the coalition, ending any attempts to revive this government at all levels and giving the opportunity to Yair Lapid to become the caretaker prime minister until the 5th election takes place; it is supposed to held after 90 days; on October 25. 


The announcement of PM Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid comes in anticipation of a project draft submitted by the Likud to fall down the government next week. This indicates Bennett's government's realization of its inevitable fate, and reflects its failure to extend one of the most important laws of Zionist sovereignty in the occupied lands in West Bank.


The announcement of the disintegration of the Government was accompanied by frustration among the constituent components of the coalition, as Gideon Saar, leader of the New Hope Party, saw the reason for the Government's downfall as "The irresponsibility of some members of the coalition", while Benny Gantz considered that the biggest loss was being drawn into a record fifth election, while coalition leaders, primarily Israel Party leader Avigdor Lieberman, insisted on the need to commit to the goal to prevent Netanyahu from being able to form a new government and re-enter the political landscape.


The decision to dismantle the government comes at a very sensitive time; in light of escalating tensions with Iran, the selection of a new chief of staff for the Israeli military, and the United States' pursuit to build a strategic defense coalition in the Middle East region, so the Israeli occupation forms an important part of its composition. 


Analysis and Insight of the Scene
• The fall of the thirty-sixth Israeli Government is an inevitable and foreseeable fate, which the occupation leaders have sought to delay as much as possible in the event of a sharp disparity between the components of this Government's coalition.
• The disintegration of the Israeli government comes at a very critical time, which will increase the internal occupation crises and the inability of the business government to make major decisions such as passing the budget, making peace and war decisions with expanded powers, or selecting and entrusting leaders and staff of the entity's top positions.
• The dismantling of the government is an introduction to a new state of convulsion in Israel's electoral scene, with election polls indicating that no camp can settle the upcoming elections despite Likud's nearly 36-seat preference. 
• Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu is racing time to influence the leaders of the government's coalition parties to ensure his return to the political scene and his ability to form a government even alternately and with broad concessions.


Possible Scenarios: based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the possible scenarios:


1. Completion of the procedures for dismantling Bennett's government, its continuation as a business government led by Yair Lapid, and going to a fifth parliamentary election in less than four years. This scenario reinforces Netanyahu's Likud's inability to resolve the formation of a government at present without dissolving the Knesset, and Bennett's loss of confidence in coalition members who hold them directly responsible for its failure.
2. Netanyahu's ability to influence one of the coalition's constituent parties and restore him to the right-wing camp, such as his attempts to influence Benny Gantz, Gideon Sa'ar or even Naftali Bennett, and to offer him the idea of rotation. This scenario, even if possible to occur, is weak under coalition leaders' insistence to prevent Netanyahu from returning to the front of Israel's political scene.

In general, the previous scenarios remain present with the comparative advantage of the first scenario, in light of the intensification of polarization and political attractiveness and the indecisiveness of the forthcoming elections or the ability to form a stable government within the current Knesset.