Situation Report by PALM Strategic

Naftali Bennett's recent decision to dissolve the 36th Israeli occupation government and announce Yair Lapid as the caretaker prime minister triggered a plenty of predictions about the future of the Israeli political regime and the fortune of the conflicting Israeli parties in the upcoming Knesset 5th election, which is supposed to be held next November. 

The Israeli media has raced to measure the expected Knesset seats of the competing parties in the opinion polls. Channel 11, Channel 12 and Maariv newspaper showed close results, and pointed out that there is a notable increase in the results of the Right-wing bloc, spearheaded by the Likud as it had 34 seats out of 120. Hence, the rightest bloc, with its current form, remains unable to form a new government. Following are the polls' results:

 

The published polls show that the Right-wing bloc, according to its current parties headed by Netanyahu, had 59 seats, while the current government coalition's parties had 55 seats and the Mutual Arab List maintained 6 seats. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene
•  The opinion polls threaten a state of tension in the Israeli political scene, especially amid the continuing friction between the electing parties and the superiority of indecisiveness. 
•  Benjamin Netanyahu seeks to rearrange the Right-wing bloc, and build a coalition forming the current government. 
• The polls' results show a notable increase for the Israeli rightest and religious parties. However, they remain unable to form the government in light of the current coalition, while Netanyahu will be able to lead the Right-wing, and form the government if he made an alliance with the Yamina Party headed by Aylet Shaked, making the Yamina party decisive in forming the government.

Possible Scenarios: Based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected:

1. The rightest parties, headed by Naftali Bennett, might be able to conform with the Yamina Party in accordance with a satisfying deal, and form the 37th Israeli government. What supports this scenario is the absence of Naftali Bennett from leading the Yamina Party, which was competing Netanyahu to lead the Right-wing, and the opening up of the party's leaders to the idea of forming a coalition with Netanyahu anew. 
2. The Right-wing bloc might fail to form a strong coalition, and not conform with the current coalition parties to acquire the majority of seats in the Knesset. This scenario might be supported in case the parties maintained their current blocs and attached to the conflict between the two blocs, which is relatively a vulnerable option.

In general, all scenarios seem logical, yet the first scenario is more preferable in light of the possibility for the Yamina Party to move to the Right-wing bloc again, Netanyahu's readiness to provide the party with new privileges in the upcoming government, and the inability of the current coalition's parties to acquire the majority of seats with or without support the Yamina.