Situation Report by PALM Strategic

US President Joe Biden's visit to the region ended with visiting the Occupied Palestinian territories and Saudi Arabia. On July 13, Biden began his tour with a visit to the Zionist entity, during which he met with the leaders of the Israeli occupation and stressed the importance of preserving the interests, status and security of the occupation and ensuring its military superiority in the region.

Biden's tour came to the region to achieve several goals, most notably securing oil and gas sources from the Arab region, urging Biden to hold the Jeddah Summit on Security and Development, with the participation of the leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Egypt and Jordan. It also aimed to build a strategic alliance that serves the interests of the United States in the face of the economic and strategic expansion of both Russia and China in alliance with Iran and a number of countries in the region, particularly as the state of hostility between the parties was exposed following the Ukrainian war.

Despite the major goals set by the US administration for the tour, its results are limited up to this moment. Saudi Arabia announced the opening of its airspace to all global airlines, including the Israeli occupation. It also translated last month's OPEC announcement to raise its output by 50%, by announcing an increase in its production contribution to 13 million barrels per day.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• Biden's tour to the Middle East came in a state of regional competition, and fluctuated loyalties in the Arab region as the American role declined.
• The leaders of the Arab region recognize the reality of the American desire to protect its interests and circumvent the Chinese and Russian expansion and Iran's relations with the Gulf States, without taking into account the interests of these countries.
• The United States has succeeded in achieving its economic goals by increasing oil production from the Arab region to offset global markets and combat Russian energy sources, but has failed to succeed in building an international alliance that defines its policies and directions.
• The UAE's position on the return of its ambassador to Tehran and strengthening economic relations between the two countries is an explicit and clear response to Biden's efforts to establish a coalition hostile to Iran, Russia and China.
• The United States seems somewhat aligned with the results of the tour, amid its main focus on energy fragments and raising production to boost the boycott of Russian energy sources.

Possible Scenarios: Based on the abovementioned analysis and reading of the scene, the following are expected:

1. Biden tour’s achievements should be limited to strengthening the military and economic relationship and agreements with the Zionist entity, and issues of strategic importance to the United States, most notably the compensation of Russian energy sources from alternative sources in the Middle East in such a way as to reduce their prices globally. This scenario reinforces Biden's tour path, issues and pressures on the oil countries to increase their share of production without expanding greater attention to other issues, notably the building of Arab NATO.
2. The results of the visit should extend to other issues of interest to the United States and the Biden administration, and its role in the Arab region, including promoting normalization issues and fighting Iran, and Russia's and China's interests in the region. However, this scenario seems less present in the explicit pursuit by the United States to achieve its energy interests as a top priority.

To sum up, all scenarios remain present and feasible, with a preference for the first scenario, which has begun to emerge and be translated on the ground with an increased oil production, and a lack of 
enthusiasm among countries in the region to build new regional alliances that serve the interests of the United States.