Naji Al-Batta 

As the past four elections of the Israeli Knesset failed to formulate a stable government, the 25th Israeli elections conducted on November 11, 2022 managed to form the 25th Israeli government under the presidency of Netanyahu's 6th term. Accompanied by a coalition headed by Itmar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from the "Religious Zionism" party, which obtained 14 out of 120 seats to be the third power in the Knesset after the Likud and Yesh Atid, the government has been formed along with the Haredi parties of the Shas (11 seats) and Yehudit HaTorah (7 seats). This fascist coalition was legitimized by laws approved in the second and third readings, among which are:

- To withdraw the blue Israeli identity from those supporting the Israeli occupation's opponents, deprive them from their civil rights (especially the national insurance) and exile them to regions in the West Bank and Gaza controlled by the Palestinian Authority. 
- To approve the first reading of the controversial economic reform plan. 
- To prevent the rising of the Palestinian flag in the Israeli universities and places. 
- To legitimize the Jews' raids to Muslims' holy places, particularly Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa in Al-Quds and Al-Masjid Al-Ibrahimi in Hebron.

Furthermore, fascist ministers called for: 
• The non-provision of any medical services for the 1948 Palestinian Arabs. 
• The use of excessive force against the Palestinians, similar to what happened in Jenin camp and Aqabat Jaber in Jericho. 

The conduction of military operations in the Palestinian Authority territories, the confiscation of further Palestinian lands, the anti-international laws colonial expansion, and the brutal measures practiced inside the occupied Palestinian territories undermine the chances of the two-state solution, yet enhance the instability status in the region. This thus increases tension in a manner that would get things out of control in the surrounding countries which undergo economic and security instability. Despite the visits of the heads of Egyptian and Jordanian Intelligence to Ramallah -crowned by the visit of US Secretary of State to Cairo- the ongoing Israeli provocative practices, Ben Gvir's visits to Al-Aqsa, and the eruption of Neve Yaakov operation as an individual Palestinian response to Jenin massacre, the status quo in the West Bank, Gaza or the 1948 occupied lands predict a major explosion that would escalate to a third intifada. This time, all the region will be affected through their representatives who expressed anger and rejection of the Israeli violations committed in the Palestinian lands, especially if such disturbances have been escorted by the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war.   

Therefore, we can say that the current government led by Benjamin Netanyahu has been looking forward to undergoing an open confrontation, as expressed in statements issued by Israeli officials and the Palestinian resistance. Nonetheless, the racist statements released by Ben Gvir and Smotrich might explode the government itself or the region. If Netanyahu was fed up with the attitudes of Ben Gvir and Smotrich embarrassing him before international forums, he would either cooperate with the official camp (Benny Gants, for instance) and the United Arab List, or he would go to escalation, which is an option that Netanyahu does not like.  

At the Palestinian level:
The Palestinian division is the master of the situation and the possibility to overcome it is very slight, and the conduction of the comprehensive national and legislative elections is an elusive step. Also, the occupied West Bank will remain an open arena of conflict between the escalating resistance and the Israeli army. Regarding the Palestinian Authority, it will never change its program as it had announced itself on behalf of President Mahmoud Abbas as an authority of security coordination.  

Future Scenarios:
• The Israeli government might be dismantled and reformed with less extremist parties. 
• The current Israeli government might look for more bloody confrontations with the Palestinians, further attempts of land confiscations in Al-Quds, expansion of colonization, displacement of Palestinians either in Al-Quds or the 1948 occupied lands through the enhancement of the security chaos and daily killing in the 1948 occupied lands and villages, as planned and implemented by Shin Bet (Shabak). 
• At the Palestinian level, the most important event will revolve around what will happen to the Palestinian Authority after the departure of President Mahmoud Abbas.  

The more effective factor will be in case Israel directly attacked the Iranian nuclear reactors through missiles and unmanned planes, as what happened lately to missile factories in Isfahan and other Iranian cities, or indirectly like semi-daily bombing of the placement of the Iranian forces in Syria and Iraq. In case Iran, Hezbollah or Syria responded, the current Zionist government will go through a regional conflict with the support of the US forces, the British forces, the NATO or the Gulf countries. Thus, this extreme government will not take the Palestinian cause into consideration in the event of a nuclear strike was headed to Iran.   

Variables are dramatic, fast and open to all options. The Israeli government holds the initiative, in contrast to the Palestinians and the Arab systems as they have nothing in hand to do. 

The events we follow up with are tangible and can be analyzed. Yet, a new variable has recently appeared. It is represented in the earthquake that shook Turkey and Syria and its aftershocks in Palestine, particularly in Haifa. Perhaps, the occupation leaders are afraid of opening any battle fronts as well as of any potential for any earthquakes that would disturb their plans.  

So the vision would be clear for the Israeli occupation leaders at the local, regional and international levels, the occupation's reluctance to take a decision will remain the region in a state of neither war nor peace for a period of time.