Scenarios of Annexation as Its Implementation Gets Closer

Jun 17, 2020 10:00 am
Lior Mizrahi/Getty Images

Since his assignment as PM, Benjamin Netanyahu has been working on the expansion project of the occupation’s entity through the annexation of the West Bank, Al-Quds and Jordan Valley (or Area E1 as they call it).

Is the Annexation Partial or Complete?

The answer to this question remains only known to Netanyahu himself as he did not inform the security and military offices about his program. However, only after the approval of the Blue-White party on his request to form the unity government as agreed on with Benny Gantz can he move forward with the program. The agreement between the two, Netanyahu and Gantz, states the latter’s assignment as Prime Minister should the unity government be dismantled – which has been considered an emergency government due to the spread of the Coronavirus.

It is not a secret that Netanyahu is seeking a way to break the agreement and stay in his post as a prime minister if the government is dismantled. The implementation of the annexation plan would add to his political record, which in turn would help him gain the sympathy of the court and hence escape the charges against him. However, the Blue-White party is completely against the annexation, so Netanyahu will have to head towards a fourth election with the ambition of winning.

As for the Palestinians, Hamas along with the other resistance factions declared initiating the work against the annexation plan with all means possible. In addition, the poor and unbearable economic situation in Gaza is alarming as the situation could explode any moment; especially that the prisoners’ swap file is on the table now.

Possible Scenarios

  1. The Israeli government would be dismantled because the emergency situation has ended. This would hinder the implementation of the annexation and create a new political crisis. This too would stop the plan from being executed as Trump is expected to lose the American elections. If he loses, the Democrats, who are against the annexation without an agreement on the two-state solution, will win.
  2. The occupation would implement the annexation plan completely. This would result in a military operation whose spark is triggered from Gaza. Then, it would be contained. This scenario has already started as Hamas declared the initiation of a response plan. It will start with public activities and grow into tougher means.
  3. The occupation would implement the annexation plan partially. This would result in Jordan’s denunciation from its peace treaties with ‘Israel’ and the initiation of individual operations that would exhaust the security and military systems of the occupation. In addition, the PA would denounce from all its treaties with the occupation as a mere formality and exercise pressure on Gaza. As a result, Hams would initiate a military operation in order to release some of the pressure on the Gaza Strip. 

All scenarios are possible to happen, but the first and third scenarios are the two more likely to. Everything, however, remains dependent on Netanyahu’s moves since the Israeli expansion project is considered his.

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