The Future of Escalation Rounds between the Resistance and Israeli Occupation

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ibrahim alzaeem

Since the Great March of Return was first launched in March 2018, the Palestinian resistance and the Israeli occupation entered about 15 rounds of confrontation, which lasted for two to three day and ended because of the mediators’ intervention, especially the Egyptians’. The condition would usually be to ease the blockade on the Gaza Strip. However, the occupation would sometimes adhere to the agreement, and other times break it.  

In this prospective vision, we answer an important question: How will the escalation rounds between the resistance and the occupation end? We will answer this question after we shed light on the previous rounds, understand their causes, understand the current rounds, and attempt to predict the possible future for all the rounds, which would usually end in favor of the resistance but without achieving their primary goals, like the ones attempted in the Great March of Return; i.e. to lift the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip.

First: Previous Rounds:

  1. Their Causes

  1. These escalation rounds represent the occupation forces’ hit-and-run tactics, which have not been a mere reaction. In fact, they have been thoroughly planned for by the former Israeli Minister of War Avigdor Lieberman and PM Benjamin Netanyahu due to their inability to weaken the resistance’ rocket force despite the 3 waged wars and the suffocating blockade. The Israeli forces intelligence services are sometimes described as precise, especially when it comes to the operations they carry out against the resistance’ security locations and posts. For instance, last November in 2018, the Qassam Brigades uncovered an ongoing operation by the Israeli occupation in the Gaza Strip, forcing the occupation to destroy several buildings which were used by their active spies in Gaza, whose job was to infiltrate the resistance. Their plan was to:

  1. Tighten the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip.

  2. Denounce some agreements made by the mediators, which would provoke the resistance to launch rockets; which would make the occupation forces target the resistance locations hence terminate them.

  3. Initiate the round with the belief that the resistance does not want to enter a fierce war considering the hostile regional treatment it, along with the Gaza people, receives. To illustrate, the occupation forces enter a war of attrition where they bomb the resistance’ locations forcing the latter to respond with rockets. As a result, the resistance would lose the rocket force it uses to deter the occupation and to create a balance of power in every war the occupation wages against them.

  4. Believe that the resistance is incapable of compensating for the missile and rocket forces it loses considering the suffocating blockade it suffers from. As a result, it will be weakened enough to let the occupation forces wage an aerial war against the resistance in Gaza, terminating them once and for all as they will not have enough rocket force to stop the raids. However, the resistance became more aware of such plans, and started to use sniper operations and other less expensive maneuvers; thus turning the tables on the occupation and causing its forces great losses in the escalation rounds.

  1. Their Characteristics

  • Joined, coordinated and harmonious work among the factions under the guidelines of a joined operations room.

  • Well-calculated and coordinated responses and gradual escalation. The fired rockets target surrounding settlements first, and then expand to reach farther areas whenever the occupation’s assaults escalate.

  1. Their Accomplishments

  • Setting new rules of engagement; i.e. putting an end to the Israeli policy of assassinating Palestinian figures.

  • Showing the Palestinian resistance’ ability to respond and the weakened ability of Israel to deter.

Second: The Current Round

  • The new development in this round is Israel’s return to its policy of assassination. It is clear that Netanyahu wishes to achieve a personal accomplishment and reinitiate this type of confrontation that would facilitate his return to the new government, especially that the security situation demands the formation of an emergency government.

  • The Palestinian response to the escalation should be powerful and painful to prevent the occupation from future assassination policies. Continuing to set the rules of engagement is dependent on the Qassam’s participation in the confrontation, which is what the occupation closely observes and fears.

  • It is expected that the Qassam Brigades will participate in the confrontation because setting the rules of engagement is in the best interest of all Palestinian factions. However, the Brigades will not enter open confrontations with the occupation. The quality of the operations will be the criterion, as happened before in the flag and bus operations last November.

Third: Future of the Escalation Rounds

Despite the importance of the escalation rounds between the resistance and the occupation, they will not contribute to lifting the siege on Gaza because the occupation continues to stall. The logical ending of such rounds is war, and following are the reasons for the occupation and the Palestinian people:

  1. The Israeli Occupation

  • The occupation will never accept the increase and rise in the military power of the resistance.

  • Netanyahu’s clinging to his position and escape from prosecution could lead to an open war.

  1. The Palestinian People

  • The occupation’s denunciation of agreements made with the resistance.

  • Although the Palestinian people and resistance do not want another war, they will continue to disapprove the continuation of the siege. 

Fourth: The Results of War 

Undoubtedly, the Palestinians do not want another war. However, the results of the war, if it happens, could be as follows: 

  1. To the Palestinians

  • The increase in national appreciation of the Palestinian resistance, which will be severely affected by the occupation’s attacks but will not be entirely terminated. This is mainly for two reasons: First, the great popular support the resistance will receive and its 3-war experience.

  • The end of the Israeli blockade.

  • The chance for Hamas to have new Arab and international horizons.

  • The end of what is left of Fatah, as its negotiation project will be deemed useless.

  1. To the Arabs

The fall of Arab regimes, especially those surrounding Palestine. These regimes have repositioned themselves after the revolutions, but they will fall again after this war as their people will start to make a move.

  1.  To Israel and America

  • The fall of high-profile political leaders, Netanyahu to be the first.

  • The termination of the Deal of the Century.

Finally, these remarks remain human thoughts and efforts, which could be correct or wrong. It is Allah who knows best.

 

Source : PALM Strategic Initiatives Centre