After Hamas’ had agreed on the conduct of Parliament, Presidential and National Council elections consecutively instead of simultaneously, it is expected that President Mahmoud Abbas issues the electoral decree before the end of this month as preliminary to the conduct of elections this year. The Palestinian people has been waiting for the elections for a long time. The last time the Presidential elections were held was in 2005 when Abbas won against 6 other candidates, and the Parliament elections in 2006 when Hamas won 74 seats.

Those elections shaped the leadership of the Palestinian people and its institutes 15 years ago, so they must be held now especially amidst the internal and external challenges. These challenges require legal institutions that represent the Palestinian people away from party-based orientations.

Necessity for Elections

Following are the aims the Palestinian people, the Arabs and the international world wish to achieve through the elections. The Palestinian aims represent the two biggest movements in the Strip (Fatah and Hamas).

Hamas aspires to:

1. Have the siege lifted. The elections will be held under international guarantees, so Hamas can make it a condition for its participation to have the occupation lifting the siege.
2. Reduce the political pressure on the movement’s leaders and members in the West Bank.
3. Effectively influence the political Palestinian scene.
4. Practice a regional and international political role especially after Trump leaves office. 

 

Fatah aspires to:

1. Renew the legitimacy of its institutes.
2. End the dispute over Abbas’ successor through the elections.

The Arab countries aspire to:

1. Exercise pressure to have Mohammed Dahlan as the new president.
2. Empower and unite Fatah to face Hamas.

The USA and the international community aspire to: 

1. Push Hamas out of the political picture, or contain the movement.
2. Renew the legitimacy of the Palestinian institutes
3. Put an end to the corruption that had spread in the institutes of the PA.

Scenarios

First Scenario: Conducting the Elections

The elections would be held after having been a national right and a popular demand, and having been pushed for under international pressure. The recent transformations in the region, the new American Administration, which expressed its approval of the conduct of elections, and the EU are all factors that have contributed to their necessity. After the mediation efforts of Turkey, Egypt, Qatar and Russia, Hamas’ committees started preparing for the elections.

Second Scenario: Not Conducting the Elections

Although several parties would benefit from the elections, the Israeli occupation, which is the most influential player in the Palestinian arena, is not in favor of their holding. The occupation’s determination against them in Al-Quds will constitute a major challenge; one that may be overcome through the internet but it would not be very realistic.

The biggest challenge is that the occupation would not even allow them for the following reasons:

1. The results of the elections may give Hamas power again.
2. It does not want to give the Palestinian people any rights, so it will not allow the division of Al-Quds and will not withdraw from the settlements.
3. It does not want the reformation of the Palestinian powers and institutes. It wants to maintain security authority in the West Bank and the siege on the Gaza Strip.

One of Fatah’s currents sees the elections as dangerous to the movement because Hamas’ victory could result in Fatah’s loss of control in the presidential institute and the National Council, which have been under its control for years. These two institutes direct the work of the PA.

Therefore, it is unlikely for the elections to be held. All the steps that are taken by the President are formalities. The real political and judiciary work necessary for any elections is absent from the scene.