Fatah’s List and Future of the Palestinian Elections

The Palestinian people are impatiently anticipating the political glimpse of hope (i.e. the Palestinian elections) which will affect all their aspects of lives. President of the PA Mahmoud Abbas had announced the decree of elections that was followed by the decree of factions’ meeting in Cairo to address unresolved issues since 2007.

Another meeting for the Palestinian factions will be held by the end of March, 2021, in order to find suitable solutions that could end the Palestinian division through the conduct of the Palestinian elections.

Insight of the Situation

The Palestinian factions, mainly Hamas and Fatah, did not declare their method of participation in the elections. Fatah has been trying to sew its factions together to win the elections. International powers have attempted to persuade Mahmoud Abbas to take part in the elections as part of one, united Fatah list that encompasses all leaders who wish to head the PA. This would delegitimize Hamas’ rule and would enable the occupation to strike the Palestinian resistance (represented by Hamas and Islamic Jihad).

The PA President sent Hussein Al-Sheikh, Minister of Civil Affairs, to the Fatah Palestinian prisoner Marwan Al-Bargouti to convince him not to run for the presidential elections. Mohammed Dahlan, a leader in Fatah who was fired, is competing against Mahmoud Abbas. The spokesperson of Dahlan’s reformist faction said that they would support Al-Barghouti should he run for president, which reduces the winning chances of Abbas.

Some countries that support the PA and the ‘Israeli’ occupation tried to persuade Abbas not to run for the elections, and to keep the cancellation of elections as a future possibility if Fatah does not join forces under one list, and if Hamas continues to mobilize the masses in the West Bank where the Palestinians have been living under the rule of the PA’s security bodies.

Possible Scenarios

  • Mahmoud Abbas fails to bring together Fatah’s factions and it continues to run under more than 3 lists. This would result in the movement’s loss in the elections hence the latter’s cancellation and the resumption of Palestinian division.
  • Mahmoud Abbas fails to bring together Fatah’s factions, yet the first stage of the elections (the legislative elections) is carried out and all other stages are not.
  • Mahmoud Abbas succeeds in bringing together Fatah’s factions under one joint list, which makes the latter a strong competitor to Hamas in the elections.

Considering the status quo, the first and second scenarios are more likely to happen.

 

Source : PALM Strategic Initiatives Centre