Last Monday at noon the time the Palestinian factions had given to the occupation to stop its punitive measures against the Gaza Strip was over. The occupation was supposed to begin actual measures to reduce the restrictions of the siege and resume the situation to prior May 10. The factions responded to the mediations and interventions that were intended to prevent a new escalation from taking place, so they agreed on giving a certain period of time to the occupation.

The factions were supposed to meet after the deadline, but because of the security situation they postponed it to Wednesday at noon. The factions are expected to comprehensively respond to the ongoing siege imposed by the occupation and the latter’s refusal to allow the financial grants and goods to enter the Gaza Strip.

At the same time, the Egyptian mediation advanced to the scene as media sources released intel on the Egyptian intelligence’ pressure on the Palestinian factions so they prolong the calm. The mediation has also been seeking to have the occupation reduce the restrictions and measures imposed on the Gaza Strip. 

Last Monday, the Palestinian resistance responded to the occupation’s siege with two rockets, but the occupation forces did not make a move. The factions decided to reactivate popular resistance tools such as firing burning balloons at the areas surrounding the Gaza Strip. 

Insight of the Situation

• The occupation has not changed its policy and still stalls the alleviation of the siege imposed on the Strip in order to exercise pressure on the people and make them pay a high cost.
• The occupation did not make a move after the two rockets fired on Monday because it does not want to escalate the situation; especially after the 4 martyrs in Jenin, instability of the security situation in the occupied West Bank, and the fires that broke out in Al-Quds that may be intentional.
• The occupation is trying not to engage in a new escalation because of the recent Operation Al-Quds Sword and the moral, political and social losses it suffered from; and the threats in the north of the occupied Palestine with Hezbollah and other threats from the region including Iran and Afghanistan.
• The occupation tried to impose new rules of engagement through threatening to raid the Strip for the firing of burning balloons or the exercise of any resistance activities, but such attempts were fruitless as the resistance continued its work to push towards the alleviation of the siege and reopening of the crossings.

Possible Scenarios:

1. The Palestinian resistance exerts the right pressure on the occupation through the burning balloons fired at the surrounding settlements of the Strip without leveling up to a military operation. This scenario is supported by the occupation’s refusal to reduce the restrictions and its insistence on preventing the resistance through the siege while being aware of its internal weaknesses and threats that do not encourage a new assault, but rather push towards accepting the resistance’ demands even if slowly and gradually.
2. The resistance exercises pressure on the occupation at a great degree through large-scale military work such as firing rockets in response to the imposed siege and closure of crossings, which prevents the entry and exit of people and goods. The fact that the siege and restrictions continue supports the realization of this scenario.

Generally, all scenarios could take place, but the first scenario is the one most likely to realize since both the resistance and the occupation want to delay the coming escalation to the farthest point in the future. In addition, the regional changes have made the Palestinian situation at the end of the list of priorities of the existing partners, and regional and international players. It is expected that the resistance activates the use of rough methods and engage in rounds of actions and reactions with the occupation.