The past week witnessed a new state of tension in the relations between Turkey and the Israeli occupation in light of the arrest of two Israeli tourists by the Turkish security forces last Wednesday. They were arrested for being charged with spying and cooperating with the Mossad as they were caught taking photos of the Dolmabahnce Palace in Istanbul and capturing the security forces that guard it.

In contrast, the Israeli occupation's government and its security forces denied the Turkish accusations that the tourists are connected to any Israeli security work. It also justified that what the couple has done is nothing but an unintended mistake. Thus, the occupation's intelligence services contacted the Turkish side to end the matter and reduce the tension between them. The most famous path of communication was through Eyal Holata, the head of Israel's National Security Council, who contacted his Turkish counterpart to ask him to let the accused meet the Israeli attorneys and diplomats.

Officially, the Israeli occupation's government did not rush to comment on the issue yet it asked its ministries to take similar careful and deliberate steps in this phase. Furthermore, it asked them not to react or to be in a hurry to make a call between the two Presidents Isaac Herzog and Erdogan to find the matter out.

 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• Turkey's rigidity in dealing with the issue of the Israeli tourists is pretty clear, especially amid the increase of the Turkish doubts that the Israeli Mossad exerts efforts over Turkey's lands. The latest of which was the arrest of groups that worked for more than a year in five different cells.
• Turkey's rigidity appears in the non-rapid response to the Israeli occupation's offer to communicate, and in its refusal to let anyone meet the accused. Yet, they also extended their arrest to another 20 days.
• The Israeli occupation realizes that Turkey seeks, throughout this issue, to obtain political gains, especially amid Israel's intransigence in the previous issues that were filed against Turkish citizens in the Israeli courts.
• The Israeli occupation is aware of the sensitivity of this issue. Thus, it seeks to deal with it in a really high degree of calm and care without provoking Turkey.
• Despite Turkey's obvious rigidity, it deals with the Israeli attempts in a planned manner. The recent of which was its agreement to let two Israeli representatives meet the accused, and its coordination to implement the visit in the coming days.

 

Situation Report:

Based on the abovementioned, the expected scenarios are as follows:

1. The situation might be contained by activating the diplomatic work between Turkey and the Israeli occupation in a planned manner that serves Turkey's interests and makes the Israeli occupation loses the least losses. This scenario is supported by the start of Turkey's response to the Israeli initiatives, and the accused's attorneys' commendation for Turkey's cooperation in this issue, and its readiness to solve it.
2. The situation might explode between Turkey and the Israeli occupation in a way that poisons the troubled relations between the two parties. What supports this scenario is Turkey's repeated attempts to catch the Israeli intelligence efforts practiced in Turkey, and its desire to strike a blow to the Israeli occupation.

 

Generally, it is expected that the situation would be contained in a way where Turkey can achieve some of its political gains and goals in a manner that suits Israel's perspectives, which will make compromises to satisfy Turkey and absorb the reasons for the crisis.