Israel’s political and military leadership is facing confusion in handling the genocidal war on Gaza, due to its inability to achieve a decisive outcome after more than 22 months of military aggression.

Despite opposition from the army, the security establishment (Mossad and Shin Bet), and even the National Security Adviser and Netanyahu’s close ally, Tzachi Hanegbi, the small decision-making council (the Cabinet) approved a rolling plan to occupy what remains of the Gaza Strip, under the pretext of defeating Hamas and retrieving the captives.

The plan includes three phases: besieging Gaza City and transferring its residents to the south before invading its neighborhoods; then advancing militarily into the south and the central camps to achieve “decisive victory”; and finally pushing the people—or part of them—toward emigration abroad through crossings controlled by Israel.

Accordingly, the scheme amounts to implementing a displacement plan, and possibly settlement across the entirety of Gaza, as advocated by Smotrich and Ben Gvir. Netanyahu may be forced to comply with them to maintain his coalition. However, this does not mean the plan is inevitable—it may well be Netanyahu’s own creation, with input from a few close associates, as a means of forcing the resistance factions into surrender under military threat. The process could begin, but may be halted at any stage should new developments demand it:
    •    Pressure from Israeli society, driven by captives’ families, especially if some are killed during the operation, or out of fear that their bodies may be lost forever—similar to what happened with pilot Ron Arad, captured in Lebanon after his plane was downed in 1986.
    •    Heavy losses among Israeli soldiers in Gaza’s destroyed streets and alleys, due to resistance that will not allow Gaza to be handed over easily to Israel’s leaders. The resistance will fight to the last in its strongholds, on terrain it knows well.
    •    Increasing international pressure, particularly from European Union states, which have surpassed the sensitivities of boycotts and the false accusations of antisemitism, in parallel with massive global popular movements in solidarity with the Palestinian people.

In sum, Netanyahu and his partners—driven by messianic, biblical visions—seek to exploit this historical moment to empty Gaza of its people, replicate displacement as in the West Bank, and secure internal “achievements” that preserve their grip on power for as long as possible. Yet it remains too early to treat these schemes as a foregone conclusion, since reality does not take shape according to the desires and ambitions of Netanyahu and his allies.