Last Monday, on November 29, 2021, the nuclear talks between Iran and the great powers were set to begin in Vienna after more than 5 months. Germany, China, France, Britain, Russia, and the United States, which withdrew from the former Iran nuclear deal in 2015, during Donald Trump's term, are involved in the negotiations.   

Iran believes that reaching a "fair" agreement is probable in case the former deal's parties re-announced their commitment, basically the United States and the lift of the economic embargo it imposed after its withdrawal. Nevertheless, the Israeli occupation is really concerned about reaching a deal, which might empower Iran in the upcoming period as hundreds of millions of its frozen funds will be released. Also, the Israeli occupation is calling for exerting efforts to subjugate Iran to a deal with the minimum level, without giving it any gains and even targeting it, if necessary.

Within the same context, the Israeli occupation seeks to persuade the leaders of the concerned parties taking part in the talks. This was obvious in Bennett's visit to Moscow last October, and in the parallel meetings held between Yair Lapid with Britain and France's leaders by the start of the new round of negotiations. Therefore, Lapid benefited from such meetings to urge the leaders to stick to their positions in any upcoming meetings with Iran, and doubt any possibilities of reaching a deal that might reduce the gap between the parties.

Furthermore, Lapid urged the United States, in his last visit a few days ago, to press on Iran that the military action will be the dominant in case the current diplomatic efforts failed. Yet, the cold response shown by the U.S is provoking the Israeli occupation, which made PM Bennett break talks with Joe Biden's administration after attacking his. Also, Bennett confirmed that any new deal will not be "compulsory".

In parallel with the political efforts, the Israeli occupation exerts other efforts to incite the negotiating countries against Iran by sharing information that indicates Iran's manufacture of a nuclear weapon and uranium enrichment of 90%, making it able to produce a nuclear weapon within one or two years.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• Iran is keen to own a nuclear technology, either civil or military, causing a state of tension and disturbance for the Israeli occupation's leaders. Thus, they seek to exert efforts on the international society to affect Iran's ability to achieve its goal. 
• The Israeli occupation insists to maintain its regional military superiority, and to prevent any competitive force from appearing and affecting its position as the foremost force in the region.
• The Israeli occupation uses intelligence incitement methods and diplomatic efforts to affect the nuclear talks between Iran and the Great powers. 
• The ability of the Israeli occupation to affect the powers involved in the negotiations with Iran is still limited. Also, they deal with the Iranian nuclear issue in a deeper way than Israel's narrow perception.
• The Israeli occupation's threat of pursuing the military action is a part of a psychological warfare. Yet, practically, it cannot go through such a challenge alone amid Iran's great military power and regional connections.

Possible Scenarios:

According to the abovementioned analysis, it is expected that:

1. The great powers might reach a deal with Iran, ending the international tension that was erupted by Trump's withdrawal three years ago. This scenario is supported by the possibility of forcing Iran to reach a deal in case they came back to their commitments.
2. Reaching a deal to end the crisis might fail. What supports this scenario is the Israeli and American pressing efforts to affect Iran to sign a new deal with less benefits to Iran, and to prepare for a military work that can resolve the crisis and end the Iranian nuclear program. 

In general, it is probable that they will reach a deal, not necessary to be in the current round. This scenario is more likely to happen amid the state of balance adopted by the U.S administration and the international pursuit to reach a deal with Iran. In addition, the Israeli occupation is apparently unable to persuade the great powers to break the current deal, lest it repeats its failure in the 2015 Iran deal.