Ukraine-Russia War and Its Impact on the Israeli Occupation

Mar 14, 2022 10:11 am
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Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, recognized the independence of two separatist eastern Ukrainian regions and signed several agreements to provide them with military protection and cooperation. As a result, a large force of the Russian army advanced to clash with the Ukrainian troops in several spots in the north, south and east, generating vast global reactions either supporting the Russian military operation or opposing it; which forms the majority.

The Israeli government attempted to delay its interaction with the Russia-Ukraine crisis in order to ensure balance in the relations with Russia on one side, and the United States; the opponent which supports Ukraine on the other side. Nevertheless, it found itself forced to satisfy the historical American alley, and support Ukraine whose positions have always been in support of the occupation.  

The Israeli statements ranged between the outright condemnation of the Russian military operation; as was stated by the occupation's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, and the broad positions; as in the statements issued by the occupation government and the occupation's PM Neftali Bennett. Those statements confirmed support for the unity of the Ukrainian lands and called for dialogue and ending all the bloodshed.

In contrast, Russia's response was not delayed. Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, announced Russia's unrecognition of the occupation's right to control the Golan and confirmed that it is an integral part of the Syrian lands. Russia's Foreign Ministry also called on the Israeli Ambassador in Moscow to attend a reprimand session that ended with that Moscow will certainly surpass the Israeli statements.

The Israeli occupation is in an awkward position, especially that the parties of the current crisis do not accept half measures. On one hand, it tends towards the historical American alley, which has the biggest military, economic and political power, and concerns about the occupation, as it is a part of its sustainable doctrine. On the other hand, it does not neglect the strategic importance of the relations with Russia, particularly amid its regional alliances with Syria and Iran; which may cast its shadow over the Israeli occupation in case the relations deteriorated.

Economically, the Israeli occupation will suffer due to the Ukraine-Russia war. Its imports including wheat, minerals, gold and woods, which come mostly from Russia and Ukraine, will be affected. Moreover, the occupation will lose the Russian-Ukrainian market which receives most of the occupation's agricultural products, as well as its economic contributions and partnerships in the Russian and Ukrainian markets will be hurt. In contrast to this economic regression, a golden opportunity is looming over the Israeli occupation to enter the European energy and gas market and exploits Europe's boycott of Russia's gas to get compensated by the wells controlled by the occupation in the Mediterranean.

 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene

  • The Israeli occupation has strategic relations with the United States, which feeds and supports Ukraine in this war. Hence, it finds itself biased to the US which considers that the occupation's security is an absolute obligation for its successive administrations.
  • The Israeli occupation finds itself forced to protect its strategic interests through maneuvering among the alliances, and maintaining a stable relation with Russia, which has a global valuable position and regional impact.
  • The Israeli occupation realizes the seriousness of triggering Russia's anger through the statements that condemn this military operation, which might lead to the end of the operational coordination between the occupation and Russia in the Syrian lands.
  • The Israeli occupation, in case the relations with Russia become tense, fears that Russia might increase Iran's power in Syria, disregard the weapons transfer, and prepare for operations affecting the occupation and its different fronts.
  • The Israeli occupation fears that Russia might benefit from its presence in Syria to prove its importance and regional role to pressure the United States.
  • The Israeli occupation well realizes the importance of maintaining a balance relation with Russia. This, of course, emerges in the alert status adopted by the Israeli officials and the assurances of Avigdor Lieberman, the ministry of finance, to "remain calm."
  • It is certain that the occupation will be affected by the results of the Ukrainian-Russian war economically, as in most countries of the world, and will suffer from an increase in the prices of energy and wheat.

Possible Scenarios: based on the aforementioned, it is expected that:

  1. The Israeli occupation might maintain a state of balance in its positions towards the Ukrainian-Russian crisis in a manner that achieves its strategic interests with all the parties. This scenario is supported by the occupation's refusal to support the condemnation of Russia draft in the Security Council, the communication between the occupation PM and Putin to mediate, and the alert status adopted by the Israeli leaders in their statements.
  2. The Israeli occupation might obviously tend to the coalition led by the United States, and the condemnation of Russia and its military operation in Ukraine. This scenario might be supported in case this crisis was extended, and the U.S. pressed on the occupation to determine its position in a way that cannot be compromised. Then, the occupation will respond to the strategic ally in the United States, and handle the repercussions of this position.

Generally, it is expected that the Israeli occupation will maintain a balanced space with the world influencers; the United States and Russia, and use a political manipulation to stay in a stable relation with all the parties. It will also play the role of mediation to guarantee not to clash with any party of the crisis, which has mutual interests with.

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