Airstrikes on Gaza: A New Escalation Wave?

Apr 20, 2022 11:05 am

Situation Report by PALM Strategic

April 19, 2022

The Israeli warplanes launched, on Tuesday morning, several airstrikes on resistance sites in Khanyounis, south of Gaza, and agricultural lands in Deir Al-Balah. Those Israeli airstrikes come in response to a rocket fired from Gaza towards Kissufim settlements in eastern Khanyounis, but was confronted by the Iron Dome. Neither the occupation nor the Palestinian medical sources reported any injuries.

The most prominent surprise that the Palestinian Resistance achieved last night was marked by its launch of anti-aircraft missiles. That, of course, raised questions about its capabilities and how the upcoming battle will be amid the resistance's efforts to neutralize the Zionist means of combat, including the air force, which highly contributes to any escalation or battle the occupation launches against the Palestinian Resistance.

None of the Palestinian factions adopted the firing of that rocket towards Kissufim colonial settlement. Thus, this shooting might be an individual behavior of one of the military regiments or the resistance fighters; without a coordination with the resistance factions, or might be an intended message from the resistance to deter the occupation from continuing its crimes against the Palestinians in the West Bank.

Within the same context, the Palestinian factions held an urgent meeting on Tuesday night in the office of Yehia Al-Sinwar –the chief of Hamas in Gaza- to discuss the field developments and agree on a mutual Palestinian standing that determines their reactions, and guarantees the unity of the Palestinian position in confronting the Israeli oppression.

Those events come after a week full of Israeli attacks on Al-Quds and the worshippers, and colonial settlers' attempts to desecrate Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa and perform Talmudic rituals that provoke the Jerusalemites' feelings during the holy month of Ramadan. Moreover, they also come in parallel with the occupation's raids into the West Bank's cities and villages and large-scale campaigns of arrests under the pretext of chasing the Palestinian resistance cells and frustrating any attempts targeting the occupation and its settlers. As well, the raiding operations extended to affect Al-Masjid Al-Ebrahimi in Hebron, in which it has been witnessing ongoing settlers' attacks for several days.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

  • The Israeli occupation forces and extremist settler gangs continue their efforts to harass and provoke the Palestinians in Al-Quds and Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa, especially with the beginning of Ramadan, which is an important spiritual month for Muslims.
  • The provocations of the Zionist settlers and the measures of the occupation forces in Al-Quds, in conjunction with the great tension engulfing the Jerusalemites, create fertile ground for the explosion of the situations and the increase of the severity of clashes and confrontations in Al-Quds.
  • The Israeli occupation extends the magnitude and scope of its crimes in Al-Quds and the occupied West Bank through its forces' attacks on citizens and worshippers and, finally, the Gaza Strip through a series of bombardments.
  • The occupation recognizes the sensitivity of the conditions and the possibility of the explosion of the situations in case the occupation' aggressions and settler practices reach a critical point, from which the Palestinian resistance will not stay silenced. It therefore picks up the stick from the middle; it pressures on the Palestinians and allows the settlers' activities to run on one side, and curbs and prevents their efforts on the other.
  • The Palestinian resistance factions deals with the situations with a high responsibility. It reads the sight of events and seeks for as much balance as possible between maintaining national constants and symbols, and avoiding the slide of events into a large military escalation or operation that is disproportionate to resistance plans and strategies.

Possible scenarios: Based on the above analysis and scenario reading, the following are expected:

  1. The events might continue and develop in a controlled manner between Palestinians and their resistance, and the occupation, to engage in limited rounds of conflict aimed at revitalizing Al-Quds and the occupied West Bank. This scenario is supported by the current state of tension in both the occupied West Bank, Al-Quds, and resistance in Gaza Strip, preferring not to integrate directly into the confrontation and to give a greater opportunity for resistance in the West Bank, Al-Quds and the occupied territories.
  2. The events might continue to roll over and enter a major military operation, including the Gaza Strip. This scenario is conditionally strengthened by the inability to contain the situation in Al-Quds, and the continued uncontrollable aggression by the occupation and its settlers on Al-Quds, the West Bank and Gaza, leading to a response of resistance that brings events to a wide military confrontation.

 

 

In general, all scenarios remain possible, but linked to the scale of the Israeli aggression, with a higher likelihood of the first scenario. It complies with the field situation and strategy of the resistance in dealing with events, and giving more space for revolutionary activities in the occupied West Bank and Al-Quds.