Conflict Chaos: Israel's Tool to Divert Attention from the Palestinian Issue

May 10, 2022 03:49 pm

Islam Mousa (Atalla)
Many recent analyses of the international conditions agree that there is an increasing state of instability and internal conflicts, which might be international as well. They also indicate that the current international balance swings in favor of chaos, and that the nearest future might be represented in the opening up of space for a chaotic system beyond the one-polar state of the United States or multipolar world following the Ukrainian crisis; a system that enjoys a big number of power centers and works independently with less attention for the state's interests and priorities in order to build alliances that maintain its survival. 

The Israeli occupation pays high attention to any violent, chaotic international or regional events, and devotes tangible pragmatism in sewing international or regional relations that benefit it as a result of the event's investment, reduction of its risks, and its use in reducing the international attention to what is happening in the Palestinian lands. 

At the international level…
Israel fears to be internationally isolated due to its racial policies practiced against the Palestinians; thus, it is deeply concerned to invest any international event that dispels this fear. It also considers the external relations as a pillar of its defense, and a significant tool to reduce the possible threats.

At the level of the Ukrainian crisis, for example, the Israeli position was fuzzy and neutral, as it was stemmed from two sides:

First: the importance of maintaining a free, independent security and political movement especially in Syria, even if the cooperation with Russia is required.

Second: the fear of the change in the international balance of forces, as a result of the Ukrainian crisis, and their orientations contrary to Israel's interests, especially with regard to the Palestinian rights and the rising of the Palestinian cause on the ladder of international priorities due to the double standards policy. Hence, in case other poles, except the United States of America, spearheaded the leadership of the international system that adopt the Palestinians' perspectives, this will be a serious scenario that might affect Israel's ability to protect its basic strategic interests, particularly with Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa, as well threatens its diplomatic capabilities in those areas.

However, this scenario is not instant nor present, as the time frame which requires a change in the current balance of forces is still unclear and perhaps needs long years. (there is a statement says that the countries that go up to power slowly, go down slowly as well. 

At the Level of the Middle East 
Israel invests the fears of the Middle East from Iran's nuclear program progress and its regional activity, and the security vacuum resulted from the reduction of the U.S. military presence in the region, the region's countries' confrontation of Jihad and global extremism phenomena, and the threats of the price escalation due to the Ukrainian crisis. 

Israel described the value of its relationship with the Arab States as a regional stabilization force in the face of those concerns. At a summit held in the Negev on 30/03/2022, the ministers of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Bahrain, Israel and the United States were gathered for the first time to strengthen the alliance between those Arab States and Israel, and possibly form a regional hub to confront those risks. The Summit conveyed a message that the hegemony of the dangers and repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis does not mean not to pay attention or worry about the forthcoming international signing of the "nuclear" deal with Iran. 
That summit coincided with a new Judaization of the Palestinian rights from the Israeli occupation government, which agreed to a proposal to establish 5 new colonial settlements in the northern Negev (where the summit was held). This raises the question of whether that summit is a new indicator of the deterioration of the Palestinian cause's place in the Arab world, and the possibility of moving beyond the Palestinians in any future regional arrangement. In particular, none of the participants required the meeting to advance a political process with the Palestinians.

It is clear from the international and regional orientations that the Palestinian issue is unlikely to return as a priority for the Arab States. Most likely, those threats will remain present at least at the short and possibly the medium level.

Any international event unrelated to the Palestinians invested by Israel; any summits or conferences excluding them; or any Israeli peace agreements with an Arab or Islamic State would be constituted as a challenge to the Palestinian cause and its entitlement. 

Israel has a strong interest in establishing a new regional structure that sets out its objectives as Iran-oriented, but in fact it has another objective; it wants to ensure the investment of this structure where it can be a partner alongside the major Arab States, headed by Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia; where it can surpass the Palestinian rights and escape from the international, regional and Arab pressures. It may also be the only player that connects the region's states to the United States amid the reduced American military presence in the region. 

Although it is not yet on the table to form a regional hub beyond the United States as a new Israeli-Arab NATO, the gravity of the meeting's indicator is to clear Israel from its responsibility to the conflicts and chaos taking place in the region, and Iran becomes solely responsible. It also tries to transform Israel from an enemy to a friend, and make it an ally of the Arab and Islamic States beyond the Palestinian cause.