Bennett Government: Between Security and Political Crisis

May 18, 2022 11:26 am

Situation Report by PALM Strategic

Matan Kahana, the minister of religious services in the occupation government, and Shemrit Me'er, the political advisor of PM Naftali Bennett, announced their resignation due to the current fragmentation of the Israeli occupation government. Kahana's resignation supports the governing coalition after the withdrawal of the rightest Aidat Suleiman, while Me'er resigned on the impact of severe conflicts between Bennett's advisors, who accused her of giving a negative image of Bennett in front of his party members. 

In parallel with those resignations, the extent of tension inside the governmental coalition increased after Israel Beiteinu Party, with support from the Middle and Left Parties, submitted a draft to amend the national law in a way that achieves equality between the Israelis. Yet, this met with strong opposition from Yamina and New Hope Parties, along with the ongoing tensions with Ra'am Party, headed by Mansour Abbas, who suspended his membership in the coalition before he accepts to return.

On a security and field level, the Israeli governments suffers from an unexpected wave of confrontations and protests with the Palestinians in occupied Al-Quds and West Bank in light of the ongoing Israeli violations, arrests and raids. The last of those attacks were the raid of Al-Dabi'e house, the arrest of a number of citizens, and the assassination of Shireen Abu Aqleh. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• Bennett's government continues to suffer from a state of ideological and political difference among its components, which confers vulnerability and instability on it.
• The return of the Ra'am Party to the coalition and PM Bennett's actions to strengthen the coalition, marked an important step in restoring the relative stability of the reeling coalition and giving it a greater chance to continue.
• The Racist Nationalism Act constitutes an element of tension and confusion within the Israeli Government, and the forces of the Left and Center Parties are therefore actively seeking to amend it to include equality for all Israelis.
• The occupation continues to suffer from security instability as a result of settler violations and the reflection of the Palestinian people's discontent. The occupation thus tries to balance between dealing with extremists with not being drawn into a broad state of engagement.

Possible Scenarios:
Based on the aforementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected:

1. The governing coalition's parties' endeavors might continue to assure the continuity of the current government in light of the serious challenges between its components and pressures exerted on it by Netanyahu's government, to maintain balance between the extreme settler provocation and the policy of brinksmanship it adopts to press on the resistance without leading the situations to explode. 
2. The pressures on the current government might increase enough to overthrow it, and call for new elections.
3. The current government might fail to maintain balance in how to deal with the challenges resulting from the settlers' attacks, and the relations with the flaming front in a way that causes a serious field deterioration. 

Generally, the first scenario seems more logic due to the security, political and field changes the occupation government suffers from, as well as the exerted efforts to reach independence.