Now that the mandate to form a government expired, the political crisis in the occupation’s entity resurfaced. Benny Gantz, Blue and White party leader, did not succeed in forming a unity government, so he requested a 24-hour extension and Reuven Rivlin , the occupation’s president, granted him the extra day. Then, Gantz and Netanyahu held a 6-hour meeting without reaching any conclusive results.

Another crisis that has reemerged is the issue of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers, who were captured in 2014. Although Netanyahu has always tried to avoid discussing it, it has been added to the political and military officials’ agenda.

Yahya Al-Sinwar, Hamas’ Leader in Gaza, recently announced the Movement’s willingness to offer information on the soldiers in exchange for the release of 250 prisoners (children under 18, women and seniors), and 55 prisoners who had been freed in the Shalit exchange deal in 2010 but were rearrested. Netanyahu hid his interest but he has been working hard to collect information on the soldiers in order to strengthen his political presence. 

Insight of the Situation                                                                     

Undoubtedly, the ‘Israeli’ entity’s crisis is unprecedented since the establishment of the occupation’s ‘state’ on Palestinian soil. This negatively influences its ability to control the existing powers such as the Arab minorities or Haredi, or the current health crisis (the Coronavirus).

The occupation is currently facing a political-health war in which it has deployed all its security forces (the Shabak, Mossad, military intelligence) and military wings (the ground forces, air force and navy). The Mossad has carried out multiple heists in several European and Gulf countries to provide the infected ‘Israeli’ patients with the necessary equipment. In addition, the Shabak has started monitoring and spying on ‘Israeli’ cell phones in order to prevent any potential gatherings.

Netanyahu’s policy when it comes to making a deal with the Palestinian resistance is hiding his true intentions. Nevertheless, the swap deal remains on the occupation’s political and military leadership’s agenda. In addition, Al-Qassam Brigades continues to send indirect threats through launching test rockets towards the sea at a bigger rate than usual. Such rockets are intended to say, “You have limited options. You either accept a swap deal or we turn on the tables we’ve been using for negotiations”.

This will corner Netanyahu as he cannot make a swap deal decision without the existence of an official government. He is, hence, facing two problems: He is fighting hard to escape the charges he is accused of, and trying to control the situation (the Coronavirus spread, pushing the Palestinian resistance to accept his conditions not vice versa, and retrieving the soldiers at a low price).

Possible Scenarios

• The Coronavirus could spread inside the occupation’s entity to an uncontrollable extent after the Mossad fails to collect the necessary medical equipment and the Shabak fails to prevent popular gatherings. This would result in a huge disaster that would either keep Netanyahu’s rule or end it as the virus will drain him physically and psychologically.
• The occupation could control the virus spread, which is unlikely due to the absence of a vaccine and the Israeli government’s failure to prevent Haredi gatherings.
• The occupation manages to form a unity government with Netanyahu serving the first term and Gantz the second. This, however, could be problematic to the mediators who seek to seal a swap deal between the occupation and the resistance. Should this happen, Netanyahu will not be able to return to the political arena after the end of his term. Instead, he will be sentenced for the charges he is accused of and for accepting the resistance’ conditions; especially that the person negotiating with him is a freed prisoner from the Shalit Prisoner Swap.
• The occupation fails to form a unity government and heads towards holding a fourth round of election as the leftists fall back and the rightists move forward under Netanyahu’s leadership. In this case, Netanyahu would manage to form a government and escape the charges. Indications show that this scenario is most likely to happen especially considering the threats the occupation is now facing.
• The occupation would overcome the political and health crises and focus more on fighting the Palestinian resistance and striking it hard preventing it from developing its military power. This, however, remains unlikely to happen.