Situation Report by PALM Strategic

The Palestinian Resistance has revived the prisoner exchange deal with the Israeli occupation, after the military spokesman of Al-Qassam Brigades -Abu Obaida- published a tweet on social media revealing the martyrdom of one of the resistance fighters of the "Shadow Unit" specializing in hiding the Israeli captives while guarding them during Al-Quds Sword Battle (2021). Abo Obaida stated the names of the captives -Hadar Golden and Oron Shaul- without mentioning any other details about their status or destiny, and also had reservations on determining the identity of the "Shadow Unit" martyr, who was killed during the operation.  

This statement released by the Palestinian Resistance is not the first of its kind, yet follows former statements; the last of which is an announcement about a deteriorated health status of one of the occupation captives. It is also preceded by sending psychological messages to the families of the Israeli captives and producing documentaries that address some aspects of the captures. 

The resistance's announcement received a state of interaction among the Israelis and the families of the Israeli soldiers captivated by the resistance. The hugest interaction was shown by the family of Golden, which announced that it does not accept the occupation army's narrative about their son -that he was killed before being captured- and that it will hold a march heading towards the borders with the Gaza Strip on Wednesday. The supporters of the captives' families expressed their loss of confident in the government leadership and the Israeli army in terms of dealing with the Israeli captives. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• The Israeli captives' issue is one of the issues that sharply affect the Israeli public opinion, especially that it touches the principles of the Israeli occupation army of not giving up on its soldiers alone in the field, the position of the Israeli army, and the motivation of the Israeli residents to join the army.  
• The Palestinian resistance realizes the sensitive time the occupation is going through, particularly amid its political crises and the huge gap in the political and social structure. However, from a while to another, it tends to reveal some of the important information it has regarding the captives' file in order to reach a prisoner exchange deal soon.
• The Israeli occupation government nowadays suffer from a state of severe vulnerability, as it witnessed a phase of deep disagreement during the earliest period presided by Bennett. And now, it suffers from more worse conditions due to its collapse and remaining as a caretaker government led by Yair Lapid until the upcoming elections  . 
• The Palestinian Resistance seeks to influence the mental and psychological status of the Israeli society and pressure its military and political system through its vital messages from every once in a while.
• The Palestinian Resistance displays a state of wisdom in dealing with the Israeli captives' file, and seeks to achieve an exchange deal throughout knowing what, how and when to release its information and messages . 

Possible Scenarios: Based on the previous analysis and reading of the scene, it is expected that:

1. Media messages disseminated by the Palestinian Resistance would increase the pressure on occupation, starting from its political and military institutes up to its community bases, in a way that confuses the papers from time to another without causing any serious penetration in reaching out to a swap deal. This scenario promotes the weakness of the Israeli current political system, under the leadership of Lapid's caretaker government, and the limited powers accorded to it as well as the extent of disparity between its components and the political price that the occupation leaders may pay during the deal, and its impact on their political future and their fortunes in the upcoming elections.

2. Resistance messages would move the still water and force the Israeli political system to take actions either politically or militarily to adversely put pressure on the Resistance, or to urge the intermediaries toward a prisoner deal. This scenario is considered to be feeble due to the general weakness in the Israeli political system.

In general, all scenarios are present and possible, with preference to the first scenario. Those media statements and messages might lead to pressure the occupation without reaching a deal as well as would lead the occupation not to interact with any initiatives regarding this context. However, those messages remain helpful over the long term in the pressure buildup on the Israeli occupation, the activation of the exchange deal and its presence before the Israelis, and the rehabilitation of their opinion in case a deal was achieved in the upcoming period.