Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, and his rival Benny Gantz, leader of Blue-White, declared on Monday signing a political agreement on forming the 35^th government after a complete paralysis and failure to form a government for over a year and a half.

According to the agreement, the government will rule for 3 years with Netanyahu as its head for a year and a half, and Gantz for the following year and a half. The Right, headed by Netanyahu, takes the ministries of Finance, Internal Security, Health, Interior and Knesset presidency. The Blue-White takes the ministries of Defense, Foreign Affairs and Justice. The Likud has the right to veto the decisions of the Ministry of Justice.

As for the key issues relevant to the Palestinian affairs, the agreement included implementing the ‘Israeli-American’ plan, imposing dominance on Area C in the West Bank, and annexing the settlements next July. The agreement also included keeping the Nation-State Bill the same without making any modifications.

Analysis

• This agreement comes a year and a half after the political Israeli paralysis – with the suspended political work and Defense budget – and after 3 Knesset elections.
• The current conditions within the occupation’s entity exercised pressure on the parties forcing them to agree on the formation of a government. The most pressing matters are the spread of the Coronavirus, the difficulty of holding a fourth round of elections, and the voters’ absence of trust and their demand for an agreement that puts an end to the crisis.  
• Netanyahu changed his strict position on controlling the Ministry of Justice (because of his concerns regarding his charges) and accepted having the power to veto the Ministry’s decisions.
• The occupation’s expansion objectives are part of the new government’s program, especially now that the date of the annexation of Area C and settlements has been decided.
• Netanyahu and Gantz agreed on maintaining the Nation-State Bill, which is a discriminating law that calls for a Jewish State and shows the government’s rejection of the other non-Jewish Israeli community’s components and the oppression of the Palestinian rights and cause.

Possible Scenarios

Based on the abovementioned, the following scenarios are likely to happen:

1. The government manages to win the Knesset’s trust and serves the term which is agreed on, but without its ability to implement its settlement program because of the opposing Palestinian position and resistance along with the international and regional pressure.
2. The government manages to serve its term and implements the occupation’s plans of annexing Area C and settlement units in the West Bank.
3. The agreement and the government fail, and one party either withdraws or turns against the others which would lead to the failure of the government and its Judaization program.

Depending on the conditions and program of the formed government, the first scenario is most likely to happen. The conditions surrounding the government show its high potential to succeed and continue, especially that each party added conditions that protect its interests and positions. In addition, the occupation’s ability to execute its Judaization plans remains difficult due to the Palestinian resistance’ efforts, the Palestinian public’s rejection and the international opposition of the Israeli-American plan and of the occupation’s presence in Palestine.