Situation Report by PALM Strategic

The level of tension and threats between the Israeli occupation and the Lebanese Resistance has increased in light of the absence of a border delineation agreement between the two parties. After about two years and 5 indirect negotiating rounds -sponsored by the United Nations – the gap is still existing without reaching a formalization of the understanding to solve the crisis and the Israeli occupation continue to take unilateral steps for gas exploration and extraction before reaching final understandings. The disputed sea area is about 860 km, according to maps adopted by the UN. 

The most important of those threats is the one released by Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah party, in which he threatened the occupation that any attack against Lebanon or any of its wealth will not remain unanswered, and the escalation will be the only choice in light of the occupation and the American mediator's procrastination. Moreover, Lebanon still awaits answers about its demand on border delineation. Benny Gantz, the Minister of Defense, in return, warned that any military act by the Lebanese Resistance against the Israeli gas fields might flare up into a war, and the occupation will continue its plan to extract gas when the field is ready, expecting that pumping will start next September. 

Within the same context, it is expected that Amos Hochstein, American mediator delegated to the issue of border delineation between Lebanon and the Israeli occupation, might return to the region next week to complete his efforts to reach a final understanding to delineate border amid the leaks of some of the suggestions supposed to by provided. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:
• The Israeli occupation's start of the gas exploration in the disputed area in Karish field last May provoked Lebanon and its resistance, which threatened to fail those attempts as they are a violation against Lebanon's sovereignty. 
• The Israeli occupation, through the American mediator and indirect negotiations, attempts to reach a consensus formula with Lebanon regarding border demarcation. 
• The American role in the current mediation has many question marks due to its stance in favor of the Israeli occupation, its postponements in the negotiation process, and insistence on wasting time in light of the unilateral activities of the occupation. 
• The mutual threats between the Israeli occupation and Hezbollah indicate the outbreak of a new escalation amid the absence of a final solution regarding the sea borders and the expanding gap in the raised visions and demands between the two parties. 

Possible Scenarios: based on the aforementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following is the expected:
1. The mutual threats between the Israeli occupation and the Lebanese Resistance might turn into a round of escalation. What supports this scenario is the occupation's general tendency towards continuing its projects in gas exploration and extraction, as well as the resistance's insistence on that it will not allow such efforts to attack Lebanon's sovereignty. 
2. The efforts of the American mediation might lead to build a consensus formula between the Israeli occupation and Lebanon, leading to the demarcation of sea borders in a satisfying way for both. This scenario is supported by the continuous American mediation's efforts and the vulnerable Israeli political state which will head to the Knesset elections next November. 

in general, all scenarios are present and possible, yet the first scenario is the most preferred. It is the most expected in light of the increasing threats and friction between both parties.