Situation Report by PALM Strategic

Ismail Haniya, the head of the political bureau, reached out to Moscow last Saturday to respond to an official invitation to discuss the developments of the Palestinian cause, along with a delegation that included the deputy head of the movement, Saleh al-Arouri, and the two leaders, Mousa Abu Marzook and Maher Salah. This visit, which will last for a few days, comes after 4 months of the Hamas delegation's visit last May, headed by Abu Marzook, to discuss subjects related to the Palestinian cause with the Russian officials.

The visit included several interviews with the Russian leaders, most importantly Sergey Lavrov, Russian head of foreign affairs, and his deputy (the Special Envoy for the Middle East), Mikhail Bogdanov. Haniya submitted an abstract about the Israeli latest violations for the detainees and al-Quds, in addition to the raids of the West Bank cities, the racist practices against the Palestinians of occupied territories in 1948, and the constant blockade on Gaza Strip. This abstract also spotted light on the efforts needed to restore the national unity, rejecting the occupation's theft of the Palestinian and Lebanese heritage, and confirming the Palestinian right to both resist and defeat the occupation.

In a related context, the Russian officials confirmed the necessity to unite the Palestinians to facilitate the adoption of a just resolution based on international law and UN decisions.

Scene Analysis:

- Russia’s invitation for Hamas to visit Moscow and discuss subjects related to the Palestinian cause is a part of its strategy to take an effective role in leading international issues generally and Middle East ones particularly, competing with the USA in its historical effective role in this field.

- Choosing Hamas in particular to receive this invitation indicates that Hamas plays a pivotal role in the Palestinian cause, in addition to its ability to bring out change.

- Hamas' addressing the national issues of the Palestinian people and its confirmation through several interviews on the Palestinian right to resist and reject the occupation, as well as the Russian support for this, is considered as a boss move in redefining the Palestinian cause in its traditional shape, as an existential battle between occupation and resistance, confirming the Palestinians' right to defend their lives.

- The United States and the occupation feel the danger of the Russian role in dealing with the Palestinian issue in terms of competition or building new alliances in the region, of which the Palestinian resistance is a part from, especially in light of the meetings’ interaction with the idea of ending the American exclusivity in formulating the policy in the region, and the importance of the multiplicity of alliances and poles in favor of the Palestinian cause.

Possible Scenarios: Based on the previous scene analysis, it is expected that:

1. The Russian efforts lead to an active role that ends or at least weakens the American exclusivity in formulating the policy of the Middle East region in general and the absolute support for the occupation in a way that enhances the situations and positions of the Palestinian resistance effectively in its battle to resist the occupation, and this scenario reinforces the state of competition and rivalry between Russia and the United States the strategic ally of the entity, and the Russian resentment of the Israeli positions consistent with the American position during the war on Ukraine and the exploitation of the resistance card to pressure the occupation.

2. The Russian effort be limited to moving stagnant waters and putting pressure on the occupation to restrain it from supporting the Ukrainian war and aligning with the American position. This scenario reinforces the superficiality of the relationship between the Russian administration and Hamas, and the possibility that these new relations will be a temporary state that does not exceed that of support and alliance.

Generally, the scenarios remain present and possible, with the Palestinian resistance’s logical awareness of the reality of the Russian trends and its desire to compete for the leadership of the region, but the resistance is also trying to invest in this path as much as possible to obtain benefits in a way that serves the Palestinian cause and the path of the resistance.