Amidst the current situation in the West Bank where the settlement agreements have proven their failure, have given the occupation everything it needs, and have deprived the Palestinians of their rights, and the annexation plan of the occupation; the Palestinian Authority is heading towards its fragmentation.

 President Abbas will seek to exit the scene to show his rejection of the Israeli measures and attempt to clean his political record, one that shows his negligence of the Palestinian cause in favor of the ‘holy’ security coordination to protect the occupation’s security. 

The Palestinian scene after Abbas is gone can be one of the following scenarios:

First: Political and Security Vacuum

The PA’s political and security institutions would fall apart, and the occupation would take control. It would occupy the cities and villages of the West Bank. This scenario would cost the occupation at the security level.

Despite the retreat in the resistance’ abilities, the occupation would not be in favor of this possibility because it means direct clashes with the resistance, or initiation of a new intifada protesting against the current conditions. Therefore, this is unlikely to happen.

Second: Security Administration

 The occupation could assign a security administration, one that is approved by ‘Israel’ and the US, whose job is to implement the articles of the American-Israeli Plan and is headed by a security specialist.

 The specialists who have the necessary attributes are Mohammed Dahalan and Majed Faraj. However, Dahalan has legally existed Fatah and has rivals in the West Bank. He has been away from the political landscape for years. As for Majed Faraj, he is the most powerful security specialist in the West Bank, is close to the decision-makers, and has helped create the current security conditions in the West Bank, so he may be the better choice. 

This scenario is the occupation’s most suitable one because it would help in achieving its vision without any losses. The Palestinian security administration would be the one to oppress any Palestinian rejection.

Third: Return of Resistance

 Hamas will try to use Abbas’ exist in inciting the people of the West Bank against the occupation’s measures at both the popular and military levels.

 Although armed resistance is absent from the West Bank, it would not be difficult to revive it in the absence of the Palestinian security grip. Hams will try to turn the table to prevent the situation from causing the loss of more Palestinian rights.

This scenario could be at this stage unlikely to happen, but it is realistic especially if it is supported through changing the current equation between the occupation and the resistance: that is through using weaponry in the field.

Although Hamas knows very well that the next war would be very expensive, it still remains the more affordable price if compared to the termination of the Palestinian cause. It might start with clashes between the resistance and occupation that would develop into a war.

Conclusion

It appears that Hamas would not accept a civil administration that would destroy the remaining parts of the Palestinian cause, especially that it would not have any legal stance; unlike the PA that also showed its adherence to the Palestinian people.