The Palestinian arena has witnessed several internal and external crises recently: the spread of the Coronavirus inside the Gaza Strip, and the political crisis between Hamas and the Egyptian mediator that has surfaced in order to solve the crisis between the occupation’s entity. This made Hamas and Fatah head to Turkey for the reconciliation agreement after the peace road was blocked under the US President Trump’s sponsorship, which in turn provoked the Egyptian government.

Insight of the Situation:

As the media shows, Hamas and Fatah managed to overcome most of the issues they had disagreed on. The most important of which is holding the legislative elections followed by the presidential ones. However, as the US presidential elections approach, the Palestinian elections are connected to the victory or loss of Trump, and the victory of his rival Biden. The peaceful method adopted by the PA did not see the light in the era of the current President, yet it may appear of use in the rule of Biden – according to the PA’s belief. The indications show his possible victory as the situation shifts fast among the Americans. This, of course, would negatively influence the reconciliation and bury it like it has been buried several times since the beginning of the division in 2007.

The underground wall that the occupation has started building two years ago is almost done. The wall is 60 km deep underground and was established to limit the Palestinian resistance operations against Israeli targets. This would encourage the occupation forces to carry out wide-range military operation against the Strip; especially amidst the Strip’s preoccupation with the Coronavirus.

Expected Scenarios:

• Trump wins as president and continues to pave the path for Arab normalization with the occupation. The reconciliation succeeds, and the Palestinians are united as Mohammed Dahalan, the pampered kid of the USA and Israel, would be eliminated. As a result, the Palestinians would carry out some operations in the occupied West Bank against the occupation leading to a long military operation against the Gaza Strip.
• Trump loses the US elections, and Biden rules instead. The Palestinian reconciliation would stop, and the PA follows the mirage of peace talks again; making the situation worse in Palestine.
• Trump loses the elections, and Biden rules instead. The Palestinian reconciliation would succeed and the Palestinians are united.

The first scenario is the one most likely to happen as it relates closely to the status quo.