Yasser Al-Banna
The challenges faced by the Palestinian cause in this phase undoubtedly obligate the Palestinians to end the Palestinian division immediately and to unite in confronting the significant risks they are subject to, especially in light of the current Israeli extremist government.
This yet seems hard to achieve. In my opinion, the Palestinian division will continue and, foreseeably, reuniting the Palestinian National Authority in Gaza and the West Bank will be impossible.
In order to understand the situation as it really is, we must know that the Palestinian division is quite normal although it has very serious consequences over the Palestinian cause. The political factions only have two main roads to reach power.
First: the conduction of elections based on a real democratic system that allows to transfer power peacefully and to accept the loser by the results of the ballot box.
Second: the appeal to weapons and the move towards a civil war that would continue until one party wins over the other or until the country is geographically divided.
Hence, the second option is more likely to happen in Palestine in light of the absence of a real democratic system and the acceptance of the "peaceful alternation of power" principle.
The armed conflict among the political parties within the undemocratic countries is also natural and occurs in all nations, including Palestine.
Humanity's best achievement in this era is the real democratic life, based on the "peaceful alternation of power", the adoption of the ballot box instead of weapons and the acceptance of results wherever the results are. This, as a result, ended bloody civil wars that decimated crops and cattle in the past in order to ascend the seat of government.
Palestine, as mentioned before, is undemocratic. For instance, elections were held twice during the past 29 years (one in 1996 and the other in 2006). Apparently, the conduction of elections is not clear evidence to democracy. Many countries all over the worlds hold periodical elections, but in real, they are far from genuine democracy.
Therefore, we believe that the Palestinian division can be ended and the reconciliation can be achieved in case:
1. The two political parties of Fatah and Hamas reach an agreement to share power following the Lebanese pattern. This is yet elusive. Also, the US veto on the Palestinian reconciliation makes this scenario hard to happen.
2. An important action happens, forcing Fatah and Hamas to unite. In this case, the Palestinian reconciliation might be temporary. Generally, this possibility is unlikely to happen.
3. A serious change happens in the Palestinian political life and the real democratic path is accepted along with the "peaceful alternation of power". This is also foreseeably not easy.
The application of the last scenario is probable, yet needs a long period of time that might extend for decades.
Democratization basically depends on citizens' awareness of its importance. Consequently, this pressures the parties to commit to its terms.
In Palestine, awareness is apparently weak. In case it was strong enough, the Palestinian parties would have taken the citizens into consideration, as happening in the democratic countries.
Therefore, the best way to end the Palestinian division is to raise the level of the Palestinian citizens' awareness of the importance of democracy and transfer of power. This will gradually form a serious pressure over parties to accept the conditions of the democratic game.
Until this comes true, the parties in Palestine will abide by "weapons" not the "ballot box".
Regardless of its great disadvantages, the geographical separation between the lands of the Palestinian Authority (Gaza and West Bank) has one advantage, represented in the end of the Palestinian civil war. Otherwise, the civil war would t
Some might not support us and consider us pessimistic.
Nonetheless, we tell them: this has no relation to optimism or pessimism. It relates to the nature of things, nature of human, nature of parties, and history.