The past week, the media outlets reported different news on the Israeli occupation’s policy towards the Gaza Strip. Maariv Newspaper said that there have been talks with Qatar to reach a long-term calm with the Gaza Strip as Qatar transfers money and implements projects to lessen the economic and humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip. Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that the leadership of the army rearranged its surrounding threats and placed the Gaza Strip on top since it is unstable and could explode any moment.

Insight of the Situation

This news shows conflicting status in the Israeli politics. However, looking closely at the field one understands something different: the occupation really wants to reach calm with Gaza only after changing the equation imposed by the Palestinian resistance in the most recent escalation rounds. This was revealed by the occupation’s intelligence and matches what Maariv published about the occupation avoiding the regular escalation rounds which start with launching rockets and end with an escalation that does not achieve anything.

As for reaching an agreement with the resistance, it would offer Netanyahu a chance to overcome the internal crises and anticipate the results of the American elections.

Expected Scenarios

The scenario that will most probably happen is the occupation’s assassination of a leader in Al-Quds Brigades similar to what happened to Abu Al-Ata. Following are the preliminaries indicating such scenario:

• Launch of rockets during the normalization agreement ceremony with the UAE and Bahrain in the White House.
• Launch of rockets a few days ago, perhaps the Jihad were responsible. The occupation said it will respond in the right time. Apparently, it wanted to ensure the success of the procedures of last discovery of a tunnel. 
• The Jihad members’ relaunch of explosive balloons.
• The continuous messages sent by the Islamic Jihad that show its rocket power, and the occupation’s anticipation of its response in case the prisoner Maher Al-Akhras is martyred.
• Heavy and continuous flight of drones.

These indicators support the theory we presented. In addition, entering an escalation with the Jihad will be better than with Hamas. Finally, the occupation assassinates a high-profile figure of the ones firing the rockets and enforces a new equation.