Naeem Ashraf Mushtaha
A temporary ceasefire agreement was reached between the Palestinian resistance and the Israeli
occupation—mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States—on January 19, 2025. The aim of the agreement was to pave the way toward a permanent ceasefire. However, on March 18, 2025, Israel launched a preemptive strike against the Palestinian resistance, which provoked the mediators and pushed them to act swiftly to contain the situation. The resistance responded by confronting all ground incursions carried out by Israeli forces.

Israel named its new ground invasion of Gaza “Gideon’s Chariots,” with the following stated objectives:

1. Eliminate Hamas as the spearhead of the Palestinian resistance.
2. Free Israeli captives held by Al-Qassam Brigades and other resistance factions.
3. Achieve a decisive victory for Netanyahu and his current government.

Mediators hosted several rounds of negotiations in an attempt to revive the ceasefire framework, yet to no avail. Qatar, under heavy U.S. pressure, has been working to broker a new temporary ceasefire that could eventually lead to a permanent one. Hamas initially rejected this approach but later reversed its stance, agreeing to the U.S. proposal presented in Qatar.

Despite this, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office issued a statement contradicting Hamas’ announcement, reaffirming Israel’s commitment to the war’s original objectives. Though conflicting messages emerged from both sides, multiple high-ranking U.S. political and military sources confirmed that mediators are close to bridging the gap between Hamas and Israel. This has brought the parties closer to a new agreement: the release of 10 Israeli captives in exchange for a 70-day ceasefire and the release of dozens of Palestinian prisoners.

Will the agreement succeed? Will it lead to a permanent ceasefire?

It’s possible that the agreement will materialize soon and proceed according to the conditions set by both Hamas and Israel, particularly due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire for calm in the Middle East. There’s a noticeable shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump concerning Israel, with top White House officials privately warning Israeli counterparts that continued warfare may lead the U.S. to scale back its support—something Netanyahu cannot risk, especially given Israel's dwindling American-supplied ammunition stockpiles.

The American position is now clear: the war no longer serves Israeli interests but only Netanyahu’s personal political ambitions. U.S. officials are unlikely to tolerate this for much longer. Although Netanyahu claimed he doesn't intend to prolong the war beyond two years—until October 7, 2025—his track record suggests otherwise. He frequently returns to old tactics, even after abandoning them briefly.

Therefore, Netanyahu might sign the developing agreement, but it is unlikely to hold as long as he remains in power. He will probably pursue a war of attrition against the Palestinian resistance using Israeli airpower, similar to the current strategy against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The resistance in Gaza will be aware of this possibility and will factor it into any future agreement.

Conclusion
It’s unlikely that the current agreement will result in a permanent ceasefire. Instead, a brief lull in fighting—lasting no more than 90 days—is expected, after which clashes will likely resume. The goal will be to establish new rules of engagement. However, this will come at a high cost for the Palestinian people, especially as they await reconstruction and deal with the societal issues caused by delayed recovery efforts.