It is clear that significant internal political shifts are likely in Israel by the end of this year or in the first quarter of next year. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly pushing for the dissolution of the Knesset after October. According to Israeli law, elections must be held within three months of dissolution—unless a new date is agreed upon. If that happens, elections are likely to be held in March 2026. This development stems from the growing controversy surrounding the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews (Haredim) into the Israeli army.

Since 1958, Israeli governments have routinely renewed a decision originally issued by David Ben-Gurion, exempting Haredim from military service every six months. However, the Haredi parties—represented by the Ashkenazi “United Torah Judaism” and the Sephardic “Shas”—conditioned their participation in the current coalition government formed in 2022 on passing a law granting them permanent exemption from military service.

Netanyahu is fully aware that passing such legislation has become increasingly difficult, given several major developments over the past three years of the coalition’s rule:
    1.    The war on Gaza, the severe shortage of military personnel, and the growing number of reservists refusing to serve for various reasons.
    2.    A rising sentiment among secular Israelis that the Haredim have become a burden, especially in light of the army’s heavy losses in Gaza—estimated at around 18,000 soldiers killed or wounded. Netanyahu has also been accused of bribing the Haredim with large sums from the government budget to ensure the survival of his coalition.
    3.    A 2015 ruling by Israel’s Supreme Court requiring Haredim of conscription age to serve in the army, followed by a more recent ruling in March 2025 demanding the current government explain—by the end of this month—why it has not enforced the earlier decision.

As pressure increases from the military, opposition parties, and even members within the ruling coalition to enforce compulsory service for Haredim, ultra-Orthodox factions insist on passing legislation that would permanently exempt them from military duty.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu needs the support of voters who strongly oppose this exemption—particularly reservists and military officers, who represent a significant voting bloc in any future elections. To manage this, he is offering the Haredim new promises aimed at postponing their withdrawal from the coalition until the end of the Knesset’s summer recess (July–October), allowing him to delay elections until the first half of 2026.

In the end, it is highly likely that the current government will not survive beyond the next nine months, which may also serve as a timeframe for the ongoing war on Gaza. During this period, Netanyahu may seek to escalate tensions in the West Bank by accelerating annexation plans, launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear program, or negotiate a deal for the release of Israeli captives in Gaza—possibly declaring it a “total victory” to strengthen his public image ahead of the elections.