Situation Report by PALM Strategic:

Israeli Elections and Future of the Palestinian Cause

PALM Strategic Initiatives Centre held a political seminar titled ‘the Israeli Elections and Future of the Palestinian Cause’ on Tuesday, February 18, 2020. Several researchers, authors and specialists in the Israeli affairs attended.

Formation of the Israeli Government

Dr. Saleh Al-Na’ami, researcher in the Israeli affairs, said that the results of the coming elections depend on the mechanisms of executing the Israeli-American Plan (the Deal of the Century), and the secular-religious attraction attempts of the occupation.

Al-Na’ami listed the possible scenarios of the formation of the coming government as follows: First, the Likud along with the Haredi parties would win 61 seats and form the government; second, a small government would be formed under Benny Gantz’ presidency with the same number of seats.

Third, a minority government would be formed under Gantz’ presidency but with the support of the Arab parties (low probability of happening); finally, a national unity government with the Likud and the Blue and White would be formed excluding Netanyahu. The last scenario is the one most probably to happen.

Regarding the programs of the coming Israeli government, Al-Na’ami ruled out any changes in the system. The new government will seek to protect its interests through executing the Israeli-American Plan and through including the West Bank and the Jordan Valley to its territory. Also, it will prioritize dealing with the challenging resistance in Gaza.

The Political Israeli Map

Dr. Khalid Sha’ban, researcher at the Planning Center and specialist in the Israeli affairs, highlighted the governing crisis that the occupation is currently facing, because the parties and the system are incapable of reaching a comprehensive Israeli nation.

Sha’ban said that the success of the Israeli elections depends on the rise in the votes. If the votes are high, the elections will succeed.

He also explained how ‘the Deal of the Century’ and the formation of an emergency government were an escape for Netanyahu so he would not be tried for the corruption charges.

Sha’ban also predicted that the coming election’s results will not be different. In fact, he said, “this shows the depth of the political and party crisis that the occupation is facing”.

He added, “The Israeli occupation will try, through Netanyahu or Gantz, to adopt  the Deal of the Century or assault the Gaza Strip to form a national unity government to implement the Deal alone with American support”.

Sha’ban emphasized how Netanyahu’s absence from the political arena does not mean a real change will happen in the Israeli political map since most of the leadership succeeding Netanyahu are ‘more extreme’. 

The Palestinian Cause

On the impact of the Israeli elections on the Palestinian cause, Dr. Abeer Thabit, Professor of Political Sciences and International Relations, said that should the elections’ results be in Netanyahu’s favor, the settlement plan and policy against the Palestinian cause in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will definitely succeed.

Thabit explained that the new government of the occupation will need to address 3 main files: Implementing what is left of the American ‘Deal of the Century’, dealing with Gaza and with the resistance factions (Hamas in the lead), and handling the northern front (i.e. Hezbollah, Syria and Iran).

She also said that if Netanyahu wins, he would rather maintain Hamas in the rule and follow ‘mowing the grass’ policy.

Thabit stressed that, “The Palestinian people are facing Zionist Israeli entities that do not perceive the Palestinians as a people under occupation and do not believe in their rights. Therefore, the Palestinian division must come to an end, and we must go past any individual or party interests. We must agree on a national strategy to face what is coming”.