Mohammed Abu Oun
During the four-year rule of the US President Donald Trump, the Middle East witnessed instability and severe turbulence. President Trump led the American policy in a provocative and unstable way, disregarding diplomatic norms. The American policy left an impact on, mainly, the Palestinian issue and the Gulf region. It also affected its relations with the Gulf States and Iran.
Regarding the Palestinian cause, Trump's Administration politically subverted the path of resolving the Palestinian issue. President Trump's actions produced a more de facto situation which made solving the conflict almost impossible. First, the administration recognized the occupation’s sovereignty over Al-Quds and the Golan, and isolated the Palestinian Authority and closed its offices in the United States. Finally, it proposed the so-called ‘the American Peace Plan’ or ‘the Deal of the Century’ which aimed to compromise the Palestinian people’s rights.
Trump also manipulated the Israeli political track to protect the control of the right, headed by Benjamin Netanyahu, through presenting political gifts to Netanyahu every now and then; be it normalization agreements with Arab countries or declaring the occupation’s right to sovereignty over the occupied lands.
Trump’s reckless policy even affected the Gulf States. From the first moment, he showed support to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain on their confusing practices towards the Gulf whether the Yemeni file or cutting relations with Qatar. His administration provided a political cover for the humanitarian violations to these countries (such as Yemen), the internal human rights issues, and even the murder of the journalist Khashoggi in his country's embassy in Istanbul.
This policy ignited the Gulf region increasing its hostility with Iran as the USA withdrew from the nuclear agreement and imposed more sanctions on Iran. Trump's policy triggered more tension through the assassination of the commander of Al-Quds Force, Major General Qassem Soleimani, and the recent export of the American military equipment to the Gulf including aircraft carries and grenade launchers.
Trump and his fluctuating policies in the Middle East will be written down in history as bitter legacy and will constitute a heavy burden for the next administration of Joe Biden, who belongs to the traditional school of the American policy, which is clear and with one goal but uses a variety of tools and means.
The new administration headed by Biden has shown interest in the Middle East. It perceives the Gulf as central and the most influential in the region as it affects the American interests and conflict-settlement references across the Arab region. Iran is considered a main supporter of the resistance movements in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine as it is also considered the Houthis’ reference of conflict settlement in Yemen. On the other hand, the Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are influential and reference of conflict settlement in the counter-revolutions systems and authoritarian regimes.
At the same time, the new administration does not seem to truly care about the Palestinian issue, but it plays a political role in keeping balance between the two parties of the conflict. Although Biden's administration declared its complete support to the occupation and pledged not to withdraw any of Trump’s decisions that serve the occupation’s interests, it called for supporting the UN’s efforts in serving the refugees. It also reconnected with the PA as the Palestinian people’s representative, and paved a way of negotiations between the occupation and the PA.
Since President Bush Jr. administration, the American administrations have managed the conflicts in the region differently. While Bush Jr. favored a direct intervention in managing the American interests in the region and waging the Iraqi war, Obama preferred following a lead-from-behind strategy directing the moves of the players, and activating diplomacy, sanctions and incentives. Trump, however, followed an unbalanced and unprofessional policy that depended on his personal influence and a team of counselors led by Kushner, his son-in-law.
It is expected that Biden will use a calmer method in addressing issues in the Middle East by avoiding direct intervention except in difficult issues from Trump’s leftovers. Biden will take a softer way, depending on activating diplomacy, and activating incentive systems and sanctions. This is evidenced in the crew working with him who had worked with Obama's administration; the last of them was appointing Brett McGurk as the Envoy of the Middle East.
Overall, the face of the Middle East will not greatly change, but the transition from Trump's period to the new administration, headed by Biden, makes the Middle East in a state of calm, and shows more adherence to the political methods and diplomatic norms. The reason is that the United States’ objectives in the Middle East are serving the American interests first, second – and always.