The past few days, the Palestinian-Lebanese borders have witnessed tension rising between the Israeli occupation and Hezbollah after the assassination of the latter’s member in an Israeli raid in Syria.

Despite the threatening speech and field escalation warnings, it is unlikely for the two to enter a war. Iran and Hezbollah, from one side, and the Israeli occupation, from the other, want to take advantage of the escalation in achieving internal and external ambitions.

Hezbollah:

Internally, Hezbollah will be able to show its strength and power to the Lebanese parties, especially amidst the current crises in Lebanon. Its aim is to prevent any Lebanese powers from surpassing its role in the Lebanese field. Externally, Hezbollah wants to restore the reputation of the party, which, along with Iran, has suffered great losses due to the continuous Israeli raids on its bases and members.

Iran:

Iran has not won the war in Syria yet, so it is unlikely for it to start a new war with the Israeli occupation. However, it could gain media support through presenting itself as fighting alongside with Hezbollah the Israeli occupation. Striking the occupation could improve its position against the USA.

The Israeli Occupation:

The Israeli occupation has deployed the Iron Dome at the borders between Palestine and Lebanon. It considers the northern front the most dangerous one. Nevertheless, it does not wish to enter a confrontation that could result in great losses. Netanyahu is basically trying to distract the Israeli community away from the failure of its government to fight the Coronavirus pandemic. Hence, the disturbing protests against its government would change into concerns about a new war with Lebanon.

The Israeli policy to cause Iran and Hezbollah grave losses continues. The occupation has followed several methods such as assassinating members, imposing economic sanctions and carrying out political pursuits. Understanding that Iran and Hezbollah would only respond to a limited extent, one that does not lead to war but protects their dignity as resistance fighters; the occupation raises the severity of its threats. If the two decide to respond aggressively, the rules of engagement would change – so it is very unlikely to happen.

The explosion in Beirut supports the argument of not having an escalation with the Israeli occupation. Lebanon will be too busy attending to the impacts of the explosion to respond to ‘Israel’. However, the result will be different if the investigations show that Israel is involved in the explosion. It is too soon to judge, though.