Occupation's Concerns over Engaging in Ground Invasion

The military operation on the Gaza Strip has continued for the tenth day in a row. The situation is fluctuating between the resistance and the occupation. The occupation's crimes resulted in the martyrdom of 217 Palestinians, including 63 children, 36 women and 16 elderly. The total number of injured reached over 1500. The occupation fired over 780 raids destroying more than 840 residential units completely and 10160 partially according to the Palestinian Ministry of Public Works and Housing.

The occupation has tried to keep media blackout over the results of the resistance' strikes, and imposed censorship on the media outlets resulting in contradicting information on the occupation's losses.

In the past 24 hours, the resistance changed its tactics and stopped targeting the big cities such as Al-Quds and Tel Aviv, and the occupation forces did not target the residential towers and infrastructure. It appears as an implicit agreement on the rules of engagement between the two. The resistance started targeting the surrounding areas and soldiers' crowds around the Gaza Strip.

As for the diplomatic efforts to contain the situation, all endeavors to achieve ceasefire headed by Egypt and Qatar have failed.

Analysis and Insight of the Situation:

  1. The occupation's desire to end this escalation and achieve ceasefire is clear. However, it does not want the resistance to have any victory in Gaza, nor does it want to submit to the resistance' demands to stop its assaults against Al-Quds.
  2. The resistance in Gaza played a new tactic. It started firing rockets intensely at the surrounding areas of the Gaza Strip hence increasing the fire with more accuracy.
  3. The occupation does not have a scenario for the military operation and is still following up with the updates. Therefore, it extends the operation for another 48 hours after they end.
  4. The Egyptian and Qatari mediation efforts are still focused on reaching an agreement that ends the escalation. The occupation is still stubborn and refuses the resistance' demands to stop the attacks in Al-Quds.

Possible Scenario:

Based on the abovementioned, the occupation wants to stop the escalation, but it refuses to admit it. It shows great hesitation and fears over expanding the operation and carrying a ground invasion. The resistance has also shown its acceptance of ending the escalation provided the occupation accepts its demands and guarantees the protection of Al-Quds and Jerusalemites from the occupation's attacks.

It is expected that field stalling and mutual anticipation is going to continue until the end of this escalation approaches and one party makes concessions. This could happen anytime now as a result to the mediators' endeavors.

Source : PALM Strategic Initiatives Centre