After Hamas’ visit to Iran, the tension between ‘Hamas’ and Egypt rose again as Egypt:

• Prevented a number of performers of Umra, who are affiliated with Hamas, from travelling despite having the required papers. The performers were returned to Gaza after reaching Rafah Crossing.
• Canceled the Egyptian delegation’s visit to the Gaza Strip which was due last week.

Therefore, a few days ago the Movement decided to activate throwing burning balloons at the occupied Palestinian lands of 1948 from the Gaza Strip borders. On Tuesday, January 14, the burning balloons were thrown.

Hamas Movement Objectives

The Movement aims to:

• End current or future restrictions imposed by Egypt on people’s movement. Egypt could arrest a number of Umrah performers while returning to the Gaza Strip, or stall and maltreat Hamas delegation, led by Ismael Haniya the Head of its Political Bureau, while returning from the tour abroad.
• Ensure that the movement of goods is facilitated from and to Gaza through Egypt.
• Force the Egyptian delegation to visit Gaza and to convey the Palestinian rights to the Israeli occupation in order to reach agreements.

Scenarios

For three months, the Israeli army was relieved from the pressure of the Marches of Return, and the settlers were relieved from the burning balloons which, though simple, could burn tens of agricultural donums.

Now that the resistance reactivated throwing these balloons, one of the following two scenarios are expected:

1. Escalation Round between the Resistance and Occupation

This scenario begins with the Israeli army’s response. The army could target the resistance’ posts and balloons’ throwers, which in turn would reinitiate a new round of escalation for a couple of days. Then, the situation would be contained by Egyptian mediation and Gaza would be relieved.

This scenario is possible because the settlers would put pressure on the Israeli Government as they are promised security; i.e. Netanyahu’s presumed achievement after assassinating some resistance fighters.

2. Relieving Gaza

The second scenario is having the Egyptian delegation return to the Gaza Strip or make immediate calls so the resistance would stop the balloons. This is what the resistance wants. The occupation would add more pressure on Egypt to facilitate movement through its border, and to treat the travelers and the movement’s delegation well.

This scenario is possible because the Israeli elections are occurring soon (next March), and initiating a round of escalation with the resistance about two months from the elections is an unsafe move. It could negatively affect Netanyahu. In addition and more importantly, the occupation is interested in maintaining calm with the surrounding regions especially after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. If one front is sparked, other fronts may follow.

This scenario is more probable to happen because it is more relevant to the field and political reality. Perhaps the Egyptian mediation will begin soon and will end the tension between Hamas and the occupation.