Israeli opinion polls, conducted this week, indicated a notable change in the power of the Israeli parties in case parliamentary elections were conducted soon. Under the supervision of a survey expert, Direct Polls Institute and channel 13 revealed that Israel's electoral conflict is still inconclusive, and that neither the right-wing party nor the left-wing party can resolve the upcoming elections.

The polls' results showed a great progress for the Likud party, which won with 36 seats. They also presented a notable increase in the results of the left and middle-wing parties, mainly Yesh Atid as it won with 20 seats, and the Labor Party, which had 10 seats. On the other hand, New Hope party, led by Gideon Sa'ar, recorded a notable decline in the number of seats it acquired.

Following are the results of the opinion polls:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such polls have come in light of the severe tension that prevails in Israel, specially amid the Israeli government's fragile pursuit to approve its budget.  As it has not approved it for 3 years and a half, the last official one was in March, 2018. Accordingly, if Bennett's government failed to pass the budget law, it will face the threat of collapse and refuge to new elections.

According to the recent polls, 51% supports Bennett-Lapid government, while 40% supports its collapse and the re-conduct of elections. Also, 9% of the people surveyed did not give a final decision.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene:

• The results of the Israeli opinion polls indicate the continuity of the polarization between Netanyahu's party and the religious right party in one hand, and the left party in another hand. They also present the inability of any party to resolve the upcoming elections, if happened, as both parties have 56 seats out of 120.
• The results show a vital change in the lists of the Israeli winners and losers, as the Labor party, led by Merav Michaeli, was revived. Although it was at risk of getting out of the political scene, it won 10 seats.
• The significant decline of the New Hope part, led by Gideon Sa'ar, does not seem weird, especially amid the state of competition with the Yamina party for "Likud's escapees."
• The Arabic Joint List, led by Ayman Ouda and Ahmed Al-Taybi, with its 8 seats maintains its position to resolve any upcoming elections, especially amid the inability of both parties to reach 61 seats.

Possible Scenarios: Based on the abovementioned, it is expected that:

1. The Israeli occupation's government, led by Bennett, and its members taking a prominent place in the political scene would stay in power. What supports this scenario is that those polls do not constitute a big considerable change in the balance of power in Israel. Besides, the current governmental coalition is keen to consolidate its position in the Israeli government amid the state of competition, run by Netanyahu and his party.
2. Neftali Bennett's government might collapse and be not able to pass the budget law. This scenario is supported by the weakness of the current government and the possible differences between its lists or deputies, especially that its failure is connected to the withdrawal of only one out of its 60 members.

Generally, it is expected that the current Israeli government would stay in power for some time to come, especially that its members see no better opportunities to pass their demands and prove themselves in the political scene.  Furthermore, the leaders of the governmental coalition apparently seek to prove their ability to surpass Netanyahu's term and find another one to lead the Israeli government during the coming years.