Situation Report by PALM Strategic

March 22, 2022

Israeli media sources announced that PM Neftali Bennett is making a surprise visit to Sharm Al-Sheikh to meet the Egyptian President Abdelfattah Al-Sisi for the second time within six months. The sources added that the visit that started yesterday will witness a tripartite summit between Al-Sisi, Bennett, and Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the Crown Prince of UAE.

Bennett's visit, accompanied by Eyal Hulata; the national security advisor, Shemrit Maer; Bennett's advisor of political affairs, and other security officials, comes after a few days of the announcement of the inauguration of a direct flight line between Tel Aviv and Sharm Al-Sheikh, starting from the Passover Holiday; which occurs on the 15^th of April. Also, the visit is expected to address other issues of security and strategic dimensions, especially in light of the international and regional developments and changes.

The tripartite summit in Sharm Al-Sheikh is expected to address several issues, most importantly the Iranian nuclear agreement negotiations, in light of expectations that the talks between Tehran and the international forces in Vienna will end up by reaching an agreement. Moreover, the summit will discuss the Israeli occupation's endeavors to form a front with an Arab support to confront Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war and its repercussions on food and energy, Bashar Al-Asad's visit to UAE, and demarcation of the map of the new interests in the region.

In parallel with Sharm Al-Sheikh summit, the Jordanian king is willing to visit Ramallah at the beginning of the next week to meet the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, following his meeting with Yair Lapid. Jordan's King Abdullah is expected to discuss with Abbas the possible efforts to prevent any security escalations in West Bank and Al-Quds during Ramadan. This Jordanian intervention comes under the umbrella of Jordan's guardianship over the holy places in occupied Al-Quds.

Analysis and Insight of the Scene

• The Israeli occupation seeks to strengthen its presence in the Arab region, and continue securing its interests regionally in light of the state of fear in case the internal conditions escalated, or the world development affected it.
• The Israeli occupation works on empowering its international presence through mediation efforts. Political sources expected that the summit will carry an Israeli endeavor to convince the Gulf, through the Crown Prince of UAE, to cooperate with the United States and enhance the crude of oil production capacity to compensate for Russia's oil, in return of providing economic assistance, and securing wheat imports of the region that receives 85% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine.
• The security leaders of the Israeli occupation realize the friction state in Al-Quds and West Bank, as well as works on activating the diplomatic role widely to ensure the less damages in case the situations went worse.
• The reality of the Egyptian contribution in those meetings lies behind the economic benefit that affects it due to the promotion of tourism between Egypt and the occupation, the Emirati investments; which amounted to $2 billion, it collects, and its attempts to benefit from Egypt's relations with the Palestinian factions in Gaza to control the security affairs in case the conditions deteriorated.

Possible scenarios: Based on the above analysis and scenario reading, the following are expected:

1. These diplomatic efforts might take place in the context of the occupation's desire to secure its interests in the light of internal and external variables, and to maximize political, economic and security benefits. They also go beyond achieving a global presence by activating mediation roles and pressure between the United States and the Gulf States, which enjoy strong relations with Russia.
2. The occupation also seeks to organize security efforts between it and the actors in the region to contain any upcoming escalation that may flare up during the holy month of Ramadan, and coordinate roles between it, the Authority, Egypt and Jordan.

In general, all scenarios seem logical in light of the internal and external endeavors of the Israeli occupation to rearrange its plans. They are also a natural result for the current confrontation between U.S. and Russia.