Chariots of Fire' Maneuvers: between Deterrence and War Drums

May 11, 2022 12:41 pm

Situation Report by PALM Strategic

The Israeli occupation army kicked off, Monday, the large-scale 'Chariots of Fire' military maneuvers, which include all regional leaders, and formal and alternate military arms. Those maneuvers simulate a war with Hezbollah and Syria in the north, and with Gaza in the south, and address the transition scenarios from calmness to war in the military and civil environment. 

According to the Israeli army, the goal of those maneuvers is to examine the army's readiness on different fronts, train the army on carrying out quick operations, simulate a multi-front war by road, sea and air; including cyber, and train them on going through a relatively long confrontation. 

On the Palestine side, the Palestinian resistance factions, with all its military components, announced a state of alert and raised its readiness for any Israeli aggression. And, on Hezbollah's side, its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stated that the Lebanon resistance forces are on alert, and that any Israeli aggression carried out over Lebanon will be grievously confronted. 

Analysis and Insight of the Scene
•    This is the Israeli army's largest maneuver in its history, including combat structures of all items.
•    The occupation is keen to carry out this maneuver that was supposed to be carried out in May last year and was initially postponed due to Al-Quds Sword Battle.
•    This maneuver was accompanied by the Israeli threats and the call for carrying out an aggression against the Gaza Strip to restore Israel's deterrence force and end the resistance in Gaza.
•    The Palestinian and Lebanese resistance demonstrates an unprecedented state of togetherness and mutual support in the face of the Israeli occupation; thus, the challenges in front of the Israeli army, which remains fearful of engaging in a multi-fronted battle, increase. 
•    The Palestinian resistance recognizes the seriousness of Israel's military threats and efforts, and is, therefore, active in taking preventive actions fearing any resistance acts by the occupation, and exploiting its maneuvers to carry out adductive and prompt military actions against the resistance.

Situation of Report: based on the aforementioned analysis and reading of the scene, following are the expected scenarios:
1.    The maneuvers might be confined to achieving its public objectives. This scenario is supported by the real weakness of the Israeli occupation and its government, and their inability to pay a high price resulted by going through wide-scale operations. Also, the publicity of the maneuvers reduces the surprise factor. 
2.    The Israeli occupation moves from maneuvers to fight, and starts a major military operation on one of the front or on more than one. What supports this scenario is the state of mobilization of forces in the field and the easiness to make them implement a sudden military work.

All scenarios are present, with considerable preference for the first scenario, which seems more realistic in light of the resistance's readiness and the occupation's weakness and its need for an inexpensive mental vision. Thus, those maneuvers are the best choice, with the possibility of rolling over to start a massive confrontation in case the situations escalated.