Oded Granot/Israel Today (Adapted)

The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, allowed himself, in a TV interview with “Al-Mayadeen” channel, with journalist Ghassan Ben Jeddo, to raise the level of his threats against “Israel” about gas drilling.

Nasrallah warned that he would not allow “Israel” to drill in Karish, if it did not initially agree on the demarcation of the maritime borders with Lebanon, and he would not allow it and foreign companies to start drilling in parallel. He also hinted that the confrontation may take place next September, if “Israel” insisted to start production, and he did not rule out that the matter would turn into a regional war, in which “other parties” would participate.

There are two ways to read Nasrallah's new warnings. First, bragging that aims to pressure Israel to accept the Lebanese demands in the current negotiations on border demarcation, so that he can score this achievement (if it happens) for himself, and that the threat using force is what made “Israel” back down.

However, it must be taken into consideration that Nasrallah is preparing himself for a confrontation with “Israel”, but it will be limited, to enhance his position only, and will not develop into an all-out war that he does not desire.

Nevertheless, it can be estimated that Nasrallah has other reasons, which are miscalculated. Israel is living in the midst of a political crisis and in a transitional period, and the army is busy in exchanging the chief of staff. Shortly: There is no one in Israel now to decide to open the war.

In such case, we can say that Nasrallah can almost repeat those miscalculated assessments that implicated him in the Lebanon war in the summer of 2006; the war at the end of which he admitted that if he had expected in advance that Israel would respond in that way, he would not have started, and he must know that he is playing with fire this time too.