For the third day in a row, the Israeli military operation continues against the Gaza Strip, causing the martyrdom of 32 Palestinians; among which are seven children, one lady, and several prominent leaders including Taysir Al-Ja’bari and Khaled Mansour of Al-Quds Brigades. The occupation has already committed horrifying massacres against civilians. Air raids against Rafah and Jabalyia Camp killed 20 civilians all at once, while the aggression continues to cause casualties among civilian lives and properties.

The occupation army declared having targeted 140 sites under the pretext that they belong to the resistance. On the other hand, the resistance declared having launched more than 600 missiles and rockets against many of the occupied cities in the Israeli entity, the main of which were Ashkelon, Ashdod, Tel-Aviv, and –most recently- Al-Quds, where more than 2,000 settlers broke into Masjid Al-Aqsa this morning.

Regionally, the interaction with the operations was only modest. Several Arab counties, mainly Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, condemned the Israeli aggression, while many others chose to watch in silence. Internationally, the reactions varied between explicit support to the occupation by Britain and the European Union, and calls to self-control and stop the “exchanged” attacks by some other European countries.

In terms of efforts to regain calm, an Egyptian delegation has arrived at the Israeli entity to discuss ceasefire, then negotiate with the resistance to end this round of fight.

Scene Analysis and Reading:

The military operation is continuous despite the Egyptian mediation, because no final agreements have been reached. However, the pace of the military operations, both by the occupation and the resistance, have noticeably decreased.
The resistance maintains a gradual strategy in its response to the occupation acts, and deals with each stage as necessary.
Voices have raised among Israeli leaders calling to end the operation upon the inability to achieve its goals. The last of these leaders was Minister Ze’ev Elkin, who called to end the operation or let it recess gradually if ceasefire cannot be directly achieved.
Evaluation of the Situation:

Based on the above analysis and reading of the current scene, the foreseen scenarios are as follows:

The flare of the confrontations continues to recess and fade with or without reaching ceasefire. This can happen through reaching a ceasefire within the few coming hours or days. This scenario is supported by the decrease in the intensity of the military operation and the continued Egyptian efforts to reach calm.
The military operation still carries new chapters of escalation with failure to agree on ceasefire. This scenario is supported by the continuity, though in variating degrees, of the military operations without reaching a clear, explicit agreement.

In general, all scenarios are possible, but the first is more likely amid the conservative positions of both the resistance and the occupation to extend the attacks and amid the Egyptian continuous efforts, which may eventually achieve a true ceasefire soon.