This week, members of the Likud submitted a draft resolution to the Zionist Knesset requesting the annexation of the Jordan Valley since it is an important area to the occupation’s politics, economy and security. This draft comes at a time when the occupation’s leaders race time in order to reoccupy some areas of the West Bank and annex them under their control.

All the efforts the Israeli occupation has been exerting were to terminate the Palestinian cause in general and grab Palestinian lands in particular. The most recent attempt was the Israeli-American Plan that allows the occupation the annexation of several areas of the West Bank and removal of Palestinian sovereignty. The Israeli occupation is going to announce the execution of the plan next July. 

The occupation has multiple options to choose from in the annexation of the West Bank in order to gradually occupy the targeted areas. Following are 5 possibilities:

• Settlement areas: 4% of the West Bank’s total area.
• Settlement blocs: 10% of the West Bank which includes the settlements, areas of jurisdiction, and surrounding streets.
• The Jordan Valley: 17% of the West Bank and covers the eastern side of the West Bank.
• C Area: 60% of the West Bank.
• Areas mentioned in the Plan: 30% of the West Bank and cover the settlement blocs, areas of jurisdiction and the Jordan Valley.

Analysis

In its attempts to Judaize Palestinian areas, the occupation tries to take advantage of any right timing in order to ensure the slightest resulting reaction possible. The occupation is encouraged to move forward in the implementation of the Israeli-American Plan because of the following:

1. The world’s preoccupation with the Coronavirus crisis, which gives the occupation a bigger chance without facing big international rejection.
2. The formation of an Israeli unity government which politically supports making such huge step.
3.   The fear of Trump’s loss in the presidential elections.
4. The limited potentials of the Palestinian Authority and limited options of the Palestinian resistance factions amidst normalization and regional plotting against the Palestinian cause. 

At the same time, there are also several obstacles that the occupation is afraid would hinder the execution of its project. Following are some examples:

1. The military situation would change and the truce between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation would end should the latter make any provocative moves that would violate the rights of the Palestinians.
2. The internal front of the occupation is not ready for the consequences of military escalation especially now that the ‘Israeli society’ is less confident about its leadership and the entity is busy facing the Coronavirus.
3. The relationship between the occupation and Jordan has witnessed a setback especially after the occupation had carried out oppressive and Judaizing measures in Al-Quds and Jordan had refused to extend the renting of Al-Baqoura and Al-Ghamr to the occupation.
4. There is a European stance being taken rejecting the occupation’s unilateral move. 10 European embassies protested against it.

Possible Scenarios

Based on the abovementioned, following are the three possible future scenarios:

1. The occupation would annex the settlements and their areas of jurisdiction as a first step in order to see the reaction of the international community and the Palestinians, and then gradually execute its plan to take over the West Bank.
2. The occupation would annex the entire territories included in the Plan and handle the consequences of any reactions made by the international community or the Palestinian resistance, especially that such reactions would be immediate and temporary.
3. The occupation abandons the annexation project because of international pressure and the Palestinian resistance.

The first scenario is the one most likely to happen. The occupation would Judaize the areas of the West Bank gradually as it has unconditional American support. In addition, internally there is an agreement on the steps and the desire to prove their presence in the areas the occupation plans to annex.