Dr. Rania Fawzi

Specialist in Israeli affairs and Media Discourse Analysis
During the past three decades, "Israel" used to undergo the conduction of elections every 28 months, yet the rate decreased in the last three years as elections were held every 9 months. This is a global record, based on any comparison. This refers to one reason, which is the internal division inside Israel about the legitimacy of Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of corruption, as the results between the far-right and the centre-left were equal more than once. Following is the analysis of the electoral scene and its implications on the Palestinian cause.

Repercussions of Political Upheavals on the Military Institute: 
The political instability of "Israel" resulted in several repercussions. First and foremost, the passage of electoral lists and political parties through unprecedented attempts of dismantling and formation. Second, the direct and indirect costs of repeated elections are estimated by millions of dollars. Third, in light of the lasting upheaval of the political class, the security institute still works with a limited interreference by politicians busy with party battles, strengthening its importance and further affecting its ability to decision-making. 
In 2019, Netanyahu once attempted to pass a resolution to launch a new aggression against Gaza. However, the Israeli military leadership frustrated this attempt. 

Decided by the military institute and approved by the political leadership, the "Dawn Breaking" operation broke out. Undoubtedly, the ongoing state of political instability would increase the weight of the military institute, which is able, if wanted, to curb Israeli political leaders that seek to obtain security credit to be invested in elections, and to pull politicians into military operations.

Fedayeen Operations and Contribution to the Upsurge of Right Power:
In light of the upcoming 5th elections, leaders of the governmental coalition believe that the voters' opinions partially change and that the upsurge of resistance would lead to more rightest positions in the Israeli community, benefiting Netanyahu. The political level and leaders of the current governmental coalitions -led by Lapid, realize the possible risks of the Palestinian fedayeen operations in the Occupied West Bank, as that increase the pressures practiced by the extreme rightists on them. This, thus, threatens their reputation and electoral future. 

In return, the governmental coalition parties adopted some steps to satisfy the rightists and colonial settlers in Occupied West Bank, by approving construction schemes in settlements despite the American pressures. 

Consequently, we can summarize the impact of the upsurge of fedayeen operations during the current period:
• Fedayeen operations show the political level's vulnerability and inability to run the situations in West Bank.
• The continuity in implementing fedayeen operations might aggravate the internal conflict, and the Israeli provocations in Al-Masjid Al-Aqsa might lead to the explosion of situations and loss of security in West Bank.
• Fedayeen operations weaken the Palestinian Authority's ability to implement its security coordination tasks, amid a popular pressure that would be stronger than the political vision of President Mahmoud Abbas.
• The Palestinian blood and Israeli violations against Palestinians constitute a vital electioneering material that fit the rightest audience and Israeli elections.
• In case the republics returned to rule in the White House, the possibility of reviving the "Deal of the Century" project will be on the political agenda.

Scenarios of the Formation of the Upcoming Government:
The latest opinion pulls conducted in "Israel" illustrated that Netanyahu bloc would obtain 59-61 Knesset members. This means that he will stand at the threshold of governance, but might not return to it in case its camp could not collect more than half of the Knesset members, which number 120.

The second possibility is that Netanyahu block might not win the absolute majority; 60 seats or less. Thus, Netanyahu cannot establish his government, as there are no parties ready to join its coalition but the party -led by Mansour Abbas- who prefers to form a partnership with the right-wing. Yet, this party rejects to ally with him. 

The third option is that Yesh Atid, led by Lapid, is probably the second in terms of electoral power. However, it will not be able to form a governmental coalition.  

Conclusion:
After all, the Israeli right wing will win the majority of seats in the upcoming elections, yet no government will be established based on all or a part of this right. Controlling the judicial system in order to cancel or, at least, freeze his trial is the first thing Netanyahu seeks to achieve after heading the government. 

At the political level, the little discussion on the Palestinian cause indicate that the maximum efforts exerted by the rightest parties extend from alleviating the pace and managing the conflict through some economic facilitations and start of Arab and international investments in Gaza and West Bank, to resolving the conflict by adopting unilateral steps represented in annexation, intensification of settlement, and blocking the road before the possibility of the establishment of the Palestinian state.

Between this and that, there is near consensus in Israel towards the dependence on military blows and security steps, and transferring the Palestinians into (economic objects) empty of any political ambitions and steeping in chasing a living. After applying the experience to some, Israel seeks to publicize it.

The US impact on the Israeli elections can be reflected by the return of Republics to the White House with the possibility of reviving the "Deal of the Century" and imposing it on the political agenda of the Arab states and Occupied Palestine.