It is now definite that the Israeli occupation will announce the annexation plan of territories and settlement blocs in the West Bank and the valleys amidst the US’ Administration’s support and blessings. Perhaps the best timing for the implementation is before the coming US elections next November. According to ‘Israeli’ sources, the Israeli Ambassador to the US is exercising pressure on the Congress and Senates to persuade President Trump to quicken the annexation procedures before the elections.
Jordanian Position
The Jordanian King along with other officials threatened to suspend some articles in the peace treaties with ‘Israel’. According to Israeli analysts, the first step could be to lower the relationship level existing between Jordan and the occupation.
Jordan is basically defending its existence because it knows that the implementation of the annexation plan means turning Jordan into a home to the Palestinian people, and depriving Jordan from natural contact with Palestine. Both of these results are dangerous to the Jordanian national security.
Palestinian Official Position
The PA will most probably face the Israeli announcement with silence. Although it was decided in the 28th meeting of the Palestinian Central Council in 2018 to stop security coordination with the occupation, the PA continues to do so.
In addition, the PA has recently taken an 800M shekel loan from ‘Israel’ provided that it would not allow the families of martyrs and prisoners to receive any money, and would pledge to prevent an intifada from happening during the annexation of settlements. Therefore, it can be understood why the Palestinian leadership postponed their meeting on discussing responses to the annexation decision.
It appears that the PA is heading towards its internal fragmentation and the end of its work. It is unlikely to take any position against the Israeli policy.
Palestinian Factions’ Position
The Palestinian factions have entirely rejected the annexation plan and its consequences that aim to terminate the Palestinian cause.
Possible Scenarios
Looking into the situation in Palestine, one could predict three possible scenarios that are under study by the Israeli security units. The scenarios are:
First: Popular Intifada
It is possible that popular confrontations would break out between the people and the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. However, the confrontations will remain limited to the Israeli soldiers. This is the least dangerous scenario as the situation can be contained.
Second: Military Confrontation
It is also possible that a military confrontation would happen in the West Bank, but this is unlikely because the PA managed to fragment the Palestinian factions’ military groups, which if are assumed to return need time to realign.
The groups, of course, could manage to improve their members and return to military work against the occupation. However, this can happen only if the PA is over. In such case, the Palestinian resistance would bridge the gap. This has a low chance of happening because of the limited resources of the resistance in the West Bank.
Third: Aggression on Gaza
Should the occupation wage an aggression on the Gaza Strip, the resistance will respond which will hinder the termination plan of the Palestinian cause. It is also possible that the war would take place after a series of clashes with the occupation, or the latter’s attempt to stop and fragment the resistance as part of a bigger plan to terminate the Palestinian cause.
The last scenario is most likely to happen because the Gaza Strip is standing against the Israeli measures. From an Israeli, American and Arab perspective, it is the Strip that is hindering the success of the Israeli-American Plan. In addition, there is the prisoner swap file which could change everything.